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FollowingU.S. August inflation data exceeded expectations, strengthening the Federal Reserve's expectation of raising interest rates in September
U.S. August inflation data was slightly higher than market expectations, quickly strengthening investors 'expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the September meeting. It is estimated that almost all observers who did not previously believe that the Fed would raise interest rates in September have changed their forecasts due to the latest inflation data. Of the 20 institutions listed, 16 predict that the Fed's next move will be to raise interest rates in September, with only a few institutions maintaining the scenario of keeping interest rates unchanged or cutting interest rates in 2027.
Among them, Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September and raise interest rates by a cumulative 75 basis points throughout 2026; Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) are also optimistic about raising interest rates in September, and both expect to raise interest rates by a cumulative 75 basis points by 2026. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect the Fed to raise interest rates in September, but the cumulative rate hike for the year will be limited to 25 basis points.
In contrast, institutions such as Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, MPA Macro, MUFG, Nomura, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale, TD Securities, UBS and Wells Fargo predict that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time in September and tighten monetary policy by a cumulative 50 basis points during the year.
Summary of current Fed policy forecasts by institutions
Bank of America: Interest rates will be raised in September; a cumulative interest rate increase will be 75 basis points by 2026.
Barclays: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 50 basis points.
BNP Paribas: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 50 basis points.
Citigroup: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 50 basis points.
Deutsche Bank: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 75 basis points.
Goldman Sachs: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 25 basis points.
HSBC: Interest rates are expected to remain stable for a period of uncertainty; no change in 2026.
Jeffery: It is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in December.
JPMorgan Chase: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 25 basis points.
Morgan Stanley: Expected to cut interest rates for the first time in 2027; no change in 2026.
MPA Macro: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 50 basis points.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 50 basis points.
Nomura Securities: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 50 basis points.
Oxford Economics: First interest rate cut is expected in 2027; no change in 2026.
Paijie Securities: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 50 basis points.
Royal Bank of Canada: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 75 basis points.
Societe Generale: Interest rates were raised in September; cumulative interest rates were raised by 50 basis points.
TD Securities: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 50 basis points.
UBS: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 50 basis points.
Wells Fargo Bank: Interest rate hikes in September; cumulative interest rate hikes are 50 basis points.
Note: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
