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XRP XRP market sentiment weakened, but there is still an opportunity to reverse technical and chain data.
In early October, as bearish sentiment spread in the crypto community, XRP's trading performance was relatively weak. Social data shows that growing pessimism may provide investors with opportunities to operate in the opposite direction.
The decline followed a small correction in Bitcoin (BTC). Bitcoin briefly climbed to $86,914 on October 2, before falling back to the $84,000 range. It is worth noting that analysts pointed out that changes in market sentiment, exchange balances and long-term chart patterns may affect the next move of XRP.
Social sentiment deteriorates, or constitutes a counter-trading signal.
Sanitation reported on Thursday that social sentiment in XRP has deteriorated sharply as October begins. Its bullish to bearish comment ratio fell to 0.67, its lowest reading since August 17. On multiple platforms including X (formerly Twitter), Reddit, Telegram and other cryptocurrency communities, a ratio below 1.0 indicates more bearish talk than bullish discussion.
Ethereum has undergone a similar shift, with its bullish to bearish comment ratio falling to 0.89, the lowest since June 7. However, Sanitation pointed out that growing pessimism could present a layout opportunity for reverse trading. "Fear is returning and some underlying market signals remain healthy, which is the kind of divergence contrarian traders usually wait patiently for," the company wrote.
Senior traders are optimistic about long-term technical structures
尽管如此，并非所有市场观察者都认同社交讨论中反映出的看跌情绪。资深交易员Peter Brandt为XRP展示了一幅更为细致的技术图景。在9月27日发布的一篇帖子中，Brandt分享了一张长期的XRP/USD图表，并解释了为何基于其技术结构，他仍然对该资产保持兴趣。
Brandt表示：“成为XRP的感兴趣持有者，并不一定需要是某个狂热教派的认证成员。图表本身总是足以让我们做出下注的理由。保持开放心态与头脑简单是有区别的。”
Brandt的图表突显了一个“倒头肩顶”形态，这可能支撑XRP短期反弹至2美元。然而，这一潜在复苏处于一个更大的上升三角形结构之中。这意味着向2美元的移动可能代表近期的反弹，而非确认XRP已经突破了更广泛的结构。
关键阻力位与供应面信号
与此同时，分析师Ali Martinez指出了XRP月度图表上的上升三角形，并将3.66美元确定为关键阻力位。他认为，月度收盘价突破这一门槛可能为通往31.87美元的道路打开大门。这仍然是一个投机性的技术预测，而非既定的价格目标。
In addition, analyst Rios pointed out that spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hold approximately 1.16 billion tokens, while the XRP balance within the exchange has dropped from approximately 12.9 billion to 11 billion tokens since April. This decline indicates a decrease in XRP available on exchanges, which could be a positive supply signal for the token.
As of press time, according to CoinMarketCap data, the trading price of XRP was US$1.51, up 0.51% in 24 hours, with a market value of approximately US$95 billion, and 24-hour trading volume reaching US$2.01 billion.
