Bitcoin Price: Does BTC's 47% rally confirm a bottom?

Bitcoin rebounded nearly 47% to around US$86,000, but Binance Research pointed out that historical data has not yet confirmed the bottom of the cycle.

Bitcoin rebounded nearly 47% from its July low and is currently trading around US$86,000. However, Binance Research said historical data cannot yet confirm that the bottom of the current cycle has been formed.

Specifically, Bitcoin rebounded 46.9% from its July low of $57,800. Binance research found that four of the five rallies from shallow corrections later fell below their cyclical lows. After adjusting for today's low volatility of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin's 54.2% retracement is equivalent to 1.94 standard deviations.

Bitcoin prices remained around $86,000 as September U.S. employment data lowered expectations for an October rate hike. Since 2013, October has typically brought a median return of 12.7%, but Binance warns that seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Why a 47% rally failed to confirm a bottom

Binance Research pointed out in its October 5 weekly report that as of October 1, Bitcoin closed at US$84,880, 46.9% higher than the low of US$57,800 recorded on July 1. Its historical research shows that rallies of this size often fail when rallies begin before Bitcoin completes a deeper correction.

Current market data shows that BTC has continued to rise since then. According to CoinGecko, the price of Bitcoin rose approximately 1.3% in 24 hours to $85,988, with an intraday trading range of $85,098 to $86,949. The asset is still nearly 32% below the all-time high of $126,080 recorded by CoinGecko.

为了分析这一现象，币安研究测试了2011年至2023年间的七个历史案例。这些案例的共同点是：比特币收盘价至少高于其周期低点40%，且仍低于此前历史高点至少25%。研究人员根据反弹开始前比特币已下跌的深度对这些案例进行了分类。结果显示，当先前的回撤幅度较大时，随后的反弹更具持续性；而在浅度下跌后触发的信号，其记录则弱得多。

在这七个信号中，有五个发生在比特币仅低于此前高点30%至38%的时候。这五次中有四次在43天内跌破了之前的周期低点。2021年7月是唯一的例外，那次浅度回撤后的反弹未创出新低。

另外两个成功的信号则出现在跌幅更大的时期。2019年4月和2023年1月，比特币分别低于高点75.5%和67.1%，当时出现的反弹信号最终都达到了新高，且未先跌破周期低点。

当前的信号出现在9月3日，当时BTC仍低于此前高点35.6%。币安将其明确归类为历史上五次反弹中有四次最终失败的那个30%-38%区间。币安强调，样本量有限，仅凭七个历史片段不足以建立可靠的预测模型，因此该结果应被视为“基础概率而非预测”。

类似的模式在今年早些时候已经发生过。比特币在2月6日触及60,000美元，随后到5月反弹了38%。2月的低点在6月5日被跌破，直到7月1日才触及57,800美元的低位。

较小的回撤部分源于波动率下降

若仅以百分比衡量，比特币当前的熊市跌幅看似温和。币安研究计算显示，从2025年10月126,200美元的高点到2026年7月57,800美元的低点，跌幅为54.2%。而此前主要熊市期间的headline跌幅分别为86.9%、84.1%和77.6%。

但在计入波动率变化后，情况有所不同。比特币的年化波动率已从2013-2015年期间的99%降至2015-2018年的87%、2018-2022年的67%，以及本周期的大约47%。随着正常价格波动的缩小，大幅回撤在百分比上也相应变小。

在对每个熊市期间各自的波动率进行调整后，这四次跌幅分别相当于1.93、2.11、2.20和1.94个标准差。据此，尽管在常规价格图表上看起来小得多，但当前54.2%的跌幅与前三次熊市的严重程度相当。

币安研究指出，证据表明比特币正变得波动性更低，但这并不一定意味着形成了更强的价格底部。报告将当前47%波动率下的54.2%跌幅，与2013-2015周期中99%波动率下80.8%的跌幅进行了比较。

This result does not establish Bitcoin's next trading position, but instead changes the way current retracements compare with earlier cycles after taking into account normal market volatility.

Mixed macro signals around $86,000

Bitcoin is back towards $86,000 as recent U.S. labor and inflation data lowered expectations for another immediate Fed rate hike.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that payroll increased by only 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. Binance Research said the data helped push market expectations for an October interest rate hike below 30%, which had previously been close to 70%.

Inflation data provides another reference. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August. Core PCE increased by 0.2% monthly and 3.0% year-on-year.

Binance pointed out that the latest PCE release contained methodological changes that reduced the reading by approximately 30 basis points. Based on the revisions used in the report, the researchers said inflation had not slowed since July.

Bond yields are the other side of the equation. Binance Research said 10-year Treasury yields are still close to 24-year highs, and risky assets are still under pressure even as traders reduce expectations for an October rate hike.

Bitcoin returns above $85,000 after a weak non-farm payrolls report. On October 2, BTC briefly broke through US$87,000, supported by short liquidations and interest rate cuts expectations. The current resistance level is still close. Recent market analysis believes that the US$87,000 -87,500 region is the primary obstacle. If buyers break through, US$90,000 will become the next psychological barrier.

ETF demand and October seasonality face new tests

Institutional demand has provided support during the recovery, although weekly ETF funds flows have cooled significantly from their peak in late September.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted US$2.39 billion in funds between September 21 and September 25, recording net inflows for five consecutive trading days. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for approximately $1.16 billion of that.

The following week was relatively calm. Data showed that net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs from September 28 to October 2 were US$82.9 million, although BlackRock's data on Friday was still pending when the data was summarized.

Binance's own equity flow data shows another form of crypto-related buying behavior. During the week from September 28 to October 2, Binance's net equity inflows increased from US$73 million to US$163 million, the highest level since early July. Circle, Strategy and BitMine together attracted US$71.4 million, or approximately 44% of the total.

October seasonality provides another reference point, but is not a guarantee. Binance research calculations show that since 2013, Bitcoin's median return in October was 12.7%, which is usually the strongest month for Bitcoin in history. Bitcoin rose 6.4% in September, its second best September performance since 2017.

However, historical patterns have also failed. Even after a positive September performance, October 2025 ended with a decline of 3.9%; October 2026 only rose 1.5% before the October 2 deadline.

Multiple planned U.S. events will provide the next macro reading. Fed records show that minutes of the September 15-16 meeting will be released on October 7, followed by the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics listed that the September CPI will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on October 14. September PCE data is scheduled to be released on October 29, the day after the Federal Reserve's October policy decision.