Bitcoin holdings fall by 10% Treasury transactions signal a trend shift

The size of Bitcoin's institutional positions has shown a shrinking trend

Based on a comprehensive analysis of on-chain data and market indicators, Bitcoin's institutional participation seems to have shown a shrinking trend again. Such institutional investors often amplify price effects through financial engineering and "treasury stock" models, but current data shows that demand is weakening. Data compiled by CryptoQuant shows that in the past three months, total positions in various institutional Bitcoin investment vehicles have dropped from 1.33 million BTC to 1.2 million BTC-a cumulative decrease of about 10% since May.

This reduction coincides with the continued anomaly in exchange pricing. CryptoQuant also pointed out that the Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 93 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest time. Analysts generally believe that continued weakness in the indicator means that institutions, especially U.S. participants, are reluctant to buy until premium levels improve substantially.

Core Points

· CryptoQuant data shows that total positions in institutional Bitcoin investment vehicles have dropped from 1.33 million BTC to 1.2 million BTC in three months (a decrease of approximately 10%)
· CryptoQuant attributed the overall decline to the pressure faced by "Bitcoin treasury stocks" companies when the market value of their equity was lower than the value of their BTC holdings
·It was reported that Strategy, the listed company with the largest holdings of Bitcoin, sold 1 last week. 638 BTC
· Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 93 consecutive days, setting the longest negative record in history since early May

Weakening the treasury stock model leads to a reduction in institutional exposure

CryptoQuant's analysis attributed some institutional holdings to changes in the economic model of Bitcoin treasury companies-these listed companies hold large amounts of BTC and often rely on their market valuations to finance their holdings. According to CryptoQuant's framework, when the stock prices of these companies exceed the net asset value (NAV) of their Bitcoin positions, the market forms a "reflexive" cycle: the company issues equity or bonds and uses the proceeds to increase its holdings in Bitcoin, thereby strengthening the premium effect.

However, this cycle weakens when market value falls below net asset value and new financing has a diluting effect. As Novaque Research puts it, the mechanism "will fail when the market value falls below net asset value and financing has a diluting effect." In this environment, the logic of treasury stocks may shift from "gaining growth through the capital market" to a more constrained model, that is, the rationality of increasing BTC holdings becomes difficult to justify.

CryptoQuant pointed out that on-chain data confirmed weakening institutional demand, but also cautioned that the data did not directly prove that treasury companies were the only driving factor. However, the company still stressed that some bitcoin treasury companies are facing valuation pressure-their share prices have been discounted to the net asset value of BTC's holdings.

Strategy's BTC sell-off highlights discount dilemma

Strategy's recent trading activity further confirms the theme of reducing holdings. According to previous reports, the business intelligence software company, which holds the largest Bitcoin treasury share in a listed company, sold 1,638 BTC units last week. CryptoQuant's analysis focuses on how market valuation discounts distort the logic of treasury stocks, and points out that in Strategy's case, the extent of the discount depends on the valuation method used. CryptoQuant provides additional perspective: Based on underlying equity, the discount rate as of Thursday was 0.7; but if Strategy's $8 billion debt and liquidation preferences on STRC preferred stock are included, its revised NAV (mNAV) is 1.03.

In practice, this accounting sensitivity is important because treasury stock strategies often rely on the market's willingness to value a company's BTC positions at its implicit "Bitcoin NAV" or higher. When valuations fluctuate or even turn into discounts, the support of the capital market will weaken, which will ultimately be reflected in a decrease in net holdings.

Coinbase Premium Index hits the longest negative record in history

While institutional positions decline, another market signal is also warning: the Coinbase Premium Index. CryptoQuant said the index has been negative for 93 consecutive days, setting a historical record. The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference between the BTC/USDT trading pairs on Coinbase and Binance platforms. A negative value means Coinbase is priced lower than Binance, a divergence that is often associated with weakening demand in the U.S. market and limited speed at which funds can enter regulated exchanges.

This premium has remained negative since early May, and this cycle has set the longest negative record in observation history. The visualizations in the CryptoQuant chart demonstrate this continuing downward trend. For some analysts, this record-negative cycle is more in line with insufficient demand than continued large-scale selling pressure. Web3 marketing platform FOUR pointed out in a post posted on platform X that the months-long negative value "is not rooted in the overall selling pressure in the U.S. market," adding that as long as the premium remains negative, U.S. investors 'willingness to buy institutions will remain depressed. FOUR's view is that markets should focus on when premiums turn positive-which could be a potential prerequisite for a stronger recovery.

Correlation between premiums, treasury stock valuations and ETF capital flows

Although changes in on-chain positions and Coinbase premium signals cannot directly prove a single causal relationship, they point in the same direction: institutional behavior has become weaker than at the beginning of the year. ETF capital flows are "an important driver of prices." When the ETF capital flow trend weakened, the bank has lowered its Bitcoin price forecast to maintain a level of US$53,000 until 2027.

This is important because ETFs and other regulated U.S. trading channels are often at the heart of the narrative of institutional engagement. If ETF capital flows weaken, the pressure will first be reflected in exchange relative indicators such as Coinbase premium. Subsequently, when treasury stock companies face market pricing that is more unfavorable than net asset value, their ability or willingness to increase their holdings of BTC through equity and bond financing will be further limited. The result may be exactly what CryptoQuant observed: an overall decline in institutional holdings in trusts, ETFs and closed-end funds.

At the same time, CryptoQuant's analysis remains cautious about causality. It pointed out that on-chain data confirmed the weakening of institutional demand, but did not directly prove the role of treasury stock companies. This uncertainty is crucial to readers: the data reveals the direction and correlation of trends, but investors should avoid assuming that a single entity or mechanism caused all changes.

Looking to the future, the key indicators to pay attention to are clear: whether the Coinbase Premium Index can finally turn positive after 93 days of negative value; whether BTC positions in institutional investment vehicles can stabilize after falling by about 10% since May; and whether treasury stock companies can return to the valuation environment so that incremental financing no longer has a diluting effect. These signals will jointly reveal whether the current institutional cooling is a temporary phenomenon or part of a long-term reset of the Bitcoin financing and shareholding model.