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Following
BTC World Gold Council's zeroing forecast and the reality of Bitcoin's US$63,000
Bitcoin trading prices hover around $63,038, down about 19% from the $77,500 level when David Tait issued his zeroing forecast. The drop brought back attention to his criticism, even though the asset is far from truly zero. Tait's arguments are not based on formal valuation models, and he describes his zeroing prediction as trader intuition and questions Bitcoin's effectiveness as a hedging tool. He has said he expects Bitcoin to offset exposure to riskier investments, but believes that Bitcoin has not consistently played this role during periods of market stress. As digital assets are further integrated into traditional finance, this criticism becomes even more important. A 2025 study found that after the launch of the U.S. spot ETF, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S & P 500 index increased, while the correlation with gold remained close to zero. The finding suggests that Bitcoin behaves more like a risk-sensitive investment vehicle than a direct substitute for gold. Controversial view: The CEO of the World Gold Council personally believes that Bitcoin will go to zero. This is in sharp contrast to the growth in institutional adoption we are seeing. Will Bitcoin really go to zero? Or will this prediction expire soon? -- August 16, 2026. In contrast, gold strengthened during the same period. Spot gold traded above $4,400 an ounce this week, with central banks buying a net 289 tons of gold in the second quarter. Data from the World Gold Council shows that these purchases increased 62% from the same period last year. Demand for gold reached 2,522 tons in the first half of the year, with a record value of US$380 billion. The comparison does not justify Tate's zeroing predictions, but highlights the different market behaviors he highlighted between digital assets and traditional defensive assets.
Wall Street lowers Bitcoin target price, US$63,000 support remains at
Current prices also challenge early institutional forecasts. Citibank lowered its 12-month bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000 in July. The bank pointed to outflows of ETF funds, weak investor demand and slow progress in U.S. cryptocurrency legislation, and its bearish scenario set the price of Bitcoin at $53,000. Standard Chartered Bank also lowered its forecast, lowering its target price for the end of 2026 to approximately $100,000 from the previous $150,000. Similarly, TD Corvin lowered its year-end target price from $140,000 to $100,000. These corrections put the current market between two very different extremes-Tate's zeroing forecast remains out of reach, while multiple aggressive six-figure forecasts have been lowered. Despite weaker prices, institutional channels are still available. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust still offers regulated exposure, despite its return on equity has dropped 27.57% so far this year. As of August 13, the fund's performance reflected a broader downward trend. In recent weeks, Bitcoin has been traded mainly between $62,000 and $66,000. Buying of ETFs competes with selling from miners and business owners, a balance that compresses the market to levels well below previous cycles 'forecasts. So at a price of around $63,038, Bitcoin is a reality test for both parties. The asset has fallen sharply since May, but is far from being confirmed to zero. For now, the strongest conclusions are numerical rather than ideological-the market is weak enough to challenge bullish targets, but far from enough to verify Tate's most extreme predictions.
