Standard Chartered Bank: Bitcoin may revisit US$126,000 before the end of the year

Bitcoin rose about 24% in a week, and Standard Chartered Bank said its forecast of $100,000 at the end of the year may be too conservative.

Bitcoin rose about 24% in the past week to about $76,844. Standard Chartered Bank said that as the cryptocurrency approaches an all-time high of $126,000, its previous forecast of $100,000 at the end of the year may seem too conservative.

Summary

Bitcoin has gained about 24% over the past week to about US$76,844. Standard Chartered believes its $100,000 bitcoin forecast at the end of the year may be low. Bank analyst Jeff Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin is expected to move towards a record high of $126,000 after October 6. Short clearing and a recovery in cash Bitcoin ETF inflows supported the rise.

Jeff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that the recent rise in bitcoin is mainly driven by short clearing, and if the rise continues, the recovery of US spot bitcoin ETF inflows may provide another source of demand. Kendrick said in a report shared with cryptocurrency media on Friday that the overall low volume of open interest in the market also left room for investors to rebuild positions as Bitcoin rises. Forced buying by short bears and a rebound in ETF demand have contributed to a rapid rebound in BTC, which had been hovering in the $60,000 to $65,000 range for most of the past two months.

"For the first time this year, there is a risk that my $100,000 year-end forecast may be too low," Kendrick wrote. According to CoinGecko data, as of the time of the report's release, Bitcoin was trading at US$76,844, up about 24% in seven days. At this level, BTC is still about 39% short of Standard Chartered Bank's forecast of US$100,000 and about 64% short of its historical record of US$126,000.

Kendrick: Bitcoin may challenge US$126,000 after October 6

Kendrick said that Bitcoin may move towards its previous record high before the end of the year, and the rally is expected to accelerate after October 6. This date is closely related to the Bitcoin market peak in 2025, after which the cryptocurrency entered a long-term decline that will continue into 2026. Kendrick's latest views focus specifically on whether BTC can maintain its recovery after the market crosses the anniversary of this high. Standard Chartered did not officially replace its year-end forecast of $100,000 with a target of $126,000. Kendrick described this all-time high as a level that Bitcoin could hit again if the current rally gathers momentum, while acknowledging that the bank's current forecasts may be conservative.

That stance is firmer than the bank's assessment during the June sell-off. On June 4, it was reported that even though BTC fell by more than 15% in a week and once approached US$61,000, Standard Chartered Bank still maintained its Bitcoin target of US$100,000. Kendrick said at the time that some of the factors driving the decline were beginning to ease. He also expected Strategy to resume Bitcoin purchases, noting that the scale of liquidation during the sell-off was still lower than in previous market crashes. Just nine days later, the bank maintained the same forecast when Bitcoin rebounded to about $63,500 after falling to about $59,000. Kendrick described the decline towards $59,000 as a "possible low" for the cycle and attributed the decline to forced selling, weak ETF flows and liquidity pressures. Bitcoin has since risen more than $17,000 from its June low.

Spot Bitcoin ETF funds flow begins to recover

As Bitcoin has moved higher, ETF demand has become one of Kendrick's indicators. The analyst said that after pressure from weak institutional demand at the beginning of the year, capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have begun to recover. Stronger ETF flows will provide buying demand that does not rely solely on forced liquidations by short positions. ETF activity has begun to improve during the July Bitcoin rally. On July 3, the spot Bitcoin ETF ended ten consecutive days of net outflows, and U.S. listed funds recorded a net inflow of US$221.7 million on July 2. Bitcoin was trading at close to $61,700 at the time, just back above the $60,000 mark. By July 21, as spot ETF inflows were positive for five consecutive trading days, BTC rebounded to above US$65,000. Bitcoin was trading at about $65,245 at the time, rising about 5% in seven days, while $70,000 remained an important resistance level.

The latest rally has pushed Bitcoin well beyond $65,000 and $70,000. Open interest volume remains another factor in Kendrick's assessment. Lower open interest means that there are fewer active leveraged positions currently than during periods of high concentration of speculative positions, leaving room for traders to rebuild their positions when confidence returns. Kendrick said the current combination of low positions and high prices could attract investors back into the market rather than immediately creating the kind of crowded leverage that could easily make gains fragile due to a liquidation cascade.

Standard Chartered Bank lowers Bitcoin target in February

The bank's current forecast of $100,000 follows a sharp downgrade earlier this year. In a report on February 12, Kendrick lowered Standard Chartered Bank's year-end bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000 and lowered its Ethereum forecast from $7,500 to $4,000. At the time, he expected Bitcoin could fall to $50,000, before rebounding for the rest of the year, while Ethereum could fall as low as $1,400. A February report on the downward forecast stated that Standard Chartered Bank listed factors such as ETF outflows, weakening macroeconomic conditions, lower expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and changes in investor positions as reasons for the downward forecast. Bitcoin ultimately missed Kendrick's $50,000 decline forecast. Its most dramatic decline instead brought the cryptocurrency into the nearly $59,000 range, before buyers returned. Even as July's volatility persisted, Standard Chartered refused to cut its forecast again. On July 10, the bank reiterated its forecast of $100,000, when Bitcoin was trading above $64,000. Kendrick said investor concerns about changes in Strategy's Bitcoin treasury strategy were part of the reason for market pressures, and Standard Chartered believes these developments are not enough to change its long-term price expectations.

Bitcoin has exceeded the main resistance zone in July

Bitcoin struggled around $65,000 many times in the early stages of its rally. On July 16, BTC failed to hold above $65,000 after briefly touching about $65,470. Whale sell-off and profit-taking by long-term holders limited the gains, while liquidation accelerated after the cryptocurrency fell below the $64,400 zone. Bitcoin subsequently returned to the same resistance zone several times and finally broke through. The rally on July 21 pushed BTC higher to $66,965, before selling stepped in around $67,000. ETF inflows, progress in U.S. cryptocurrency legislation and short liquidations drove the rally, while rising oil prices related to the U.S. -Iran conflict limited gains. These July price levels are currently more than $10,000 below Bitcoin's latest market price.

Other industry observers are also looking for evidence that the bear market in 2026 is over. According to reports, Swan Bitcoin CEO Corey Klipsten said Bitcoin could hit a bottom in October, while 10x Research founder Marcus Tillen said a closing above $63,000 in August could confirm a bear market bottom. Bitcoin was well above that threshold by the end of August, although Tillen's terms depend on the cryptocurrency's closing price at the end of the month. During the July decline, BTC traded multiple times in the US$62,000 to US$65,000 range. On July 17, Bitcoin fell below US$63,000, as the renewed escalation of U.S. -Iran military operations put pressure on risky assets. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF still recorded a net inflow of US$79.15 million on the previous trading day. Kendrick's latest assessment puts the bank's focus above the previous resistance level, with Standard Chartered maintaining its official year-end forecast of $100,000, while its head of digital asset research believes Bitcoin is likely to return to $126,000 before the end of 2026.