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BTC 
ETH The probability of Senate passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 rises to about 30%
As lawmakers rush for a key procedural vote on September 15, forecast market data shows that the probability of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (referred to as the CLARITY Act) successfully passing the Senate in 2026 has risen to about 30%.
Critical significance of the September 15 vote
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) is one of the high-profile cryptocurrency legislation in the United States. The bill aims to establish a federal market structural framework for digital assets and clarify the division of regulatory responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The September 15 vote, scheduled to be held at 2:15 pm EST, is for H.R. Bill 3633 (the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) ended debate and entered the "cloture vote" during the voting stage. The vote is scheduled to take place immediately after lawmakers return from their August recess.
It should be pointed out that this procedural vote does not directly determine whether the CLARITY Act can become law. However, under Senate rules, advancing such legislation requires a super majority of 60 votes. If the bill fails to receive enough votes, it means that it has virtually no chance of passing in 2026.
The Republican Party currently controls 53 seats in the Senate, so at least seven Democrats need to join the unified Republican camp to reach the 60-vote final filibuster threshold. Expectations for its passage have weakened due to delays in bringing the bill to the full house for discussion. Analysts warn that a limited legislative schedule and November elections could make passage of bills more difficult.
Revised bill and Democratic concessions
Lummis said the new draft reflects the results of ongoing negotiations during the Senate's August recess. "At the request of our Democratic colleagues, we absorbed more than 114 separate clauses, so this is a strong bipartisan product." Loomis said in a statement released on September 10.
The final text contains new ethics language, largely adopting the core elements of the Tillis-Gallego ethics proposal, which includes giving the state attorney general a substantive role in law enforcement. In addition, the bill also grants new powers to the Minister of Finance to prevent capital flight risks associated with payment type stablecoins. The draft also amends the Blockchain Regulatory Definiteness Act (BRCA) to protect developers from currency transfer registration requirements and establish a strong civil safe harbor system.
In terms of decentralized finance (DeFi), legislation clarifies sanctions obligations, requires digital asset intermediaries that interact with the DeFi protocol to implement risk management standards, and establishes tailor-made rules for transaction protocols that are not truly decentralized.
In terms of consumer protection, the sponsors of the bill argue that the CLARITY Act is essentially a consumer protection law. Its rule-making requirements are aimed at protecting investors, protecting customers 'rights and interests, establishing a sound customer asset custody system, and creating customer disclosure and listing standards for digital commodities.
Democrats want the bill to include strict ethics, conflict of interest circumvention and anti-illegal financial safeguards; while Republicans value the market clarity and innovation certainty brought by a bipartisan alliance. Still, supporters remain optimistic that lawmakers will be able to resolve remaining differences.
