美光（MU）股价上涨3% 分析师对供应限制和利润空间持乐观态度

核心要点

• 供应限制可能支撑 DRAM 价格动态
• 9 月 30 日公布的财报将是关键里程碑
• 获取 3 本免费股票电子书

供应限制或支撑 DRAM 定价动态

在预计于 9 月 30 日发布的第四季度财报公布前，美光科技（Micron）的股价在周一上涨了约 3%。Stifel 公司预计其第四财季营收将达到 507.8 亿美元，环比增长 22%。预计下一季度的营收增速将放缓至约 11%。

据 Stifel 分析，DRAM 出货量扩张受限可能会维持紧张的供应状况，从而 bolstering（支撑）定价能力和盈利能力。该投资公司重申了对美光的“买入”评级，目标价为 1,500 美元。

美光（MU）股价在周一上涨约 3%，市场参与者预期这家内存半导体制造商将于 9 月 30 日发布第四财季财务报告。盘内交易推动股价突破 1,030 美元，此前周五收盘价为 1,015.80 美元。

美光技术公司 (Micron Technology, Inc., MU)

这一近期的上涨延续了美光股价的显著轨迹，其在过去十二个月内涨幅超过 500%。根据 Stifel 的分析，虽然即将到来的增长阶段可能表现出温和态势，但供应受限的动态仍可能支撑强劲的定价和盈利指标。

Analyst Brian Chin predicts that fiscal fourth-quarter revenue will reach US$50.78 billion, a month-on-month increase of approximately 22%. His forecasts suggest that growth will slow to about 11% in the next quarter.

This expected slowdown is not due to weak demand in the end market. Instead, Stifel believes that Micron and its competitors face physical constraints that prevent shipments from fully meeting current market demand.

Supply constraints may support DRAM pricing dynamics

Stifel's forecast shows that DRAM bit shipments will expand between 15% and 20% through the 2027 calendar year. This forecast is below the expected mid-to-high 20% growth trajectory for 2026.

Chin's analysis pointed out that in order to completely eliminate the existing supply and demand gap, DRAM shipments next year need to expand within the range of 40% to 50%. Due to cleanroom capacity constraints and equipment delivery constraints, such a large increase in supply seems unlikely.

If supply conditions remain tight, memory semiconductor prices may remain high even if shipment growth slows down. This dynamic will allow Micron to maintain high gross margin levels and profitability, which are typically compressed during periods of slowing sales expansion.

Stifel expects Micron's upcoming financial results and forward-looking guidance to exceed the company's internal forecasts and broader Wall Street expectations. However, the company warned that the magnitude of positive surprises may weaken compared to the recent reporting period.

Part of the reason for this moderation is the contractual pricing structure embedded in long-term customer agreements. Some contracts include collar-based pricing mechanisms, which may curb the magnitude of recent revenue fluctuations.

The September 30 results represent a key milestone

Micron is scheduled to release its fiscal fourth-quarter financial results on September 30. Management will hold an earnings conference call at 2:30 p.m. Mountain Time.

The company posted record third-quarter results, with revenue climbing to $41.46 billion from $23.86 billion in the previous quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $25.11.

Stifel maintains a "buy" rating on Micron shares with a price target of US$1,500. Analyst sentiment was generally positive, with Investing.com data showing that the average 12-month price target exceeded $1,500 within its coverage range.

The main consideration facing investors is Micron's huge valuation appreciation, which has greatly pushed up market expectations. Any sign that memory pricing dynamics, artificial intelligence demand trajectories, or profit margin prospects are deteriorating faster than expected could put downward pressure on stock prices.

Supply tightness presents a double-edged sword situation. While supply constraints can support favorable pricing, they also limit unit sales expansion and may prevent Micron from taking full advantage of available market opportunities.

In the short term, the September 30 earnings announcement will be the next clear catalyst. Market participants will carefully review revenue progress, DRAM pricing trends, shipping capacity constraints, and management's outlook comments for fiscal 2027.