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预测市场:Kalshi在体育合约问题上遭遇重大挫败

2026-09-27 20:13:45
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第六巡回上诉法院裁定支持俄亥俄州与田纳西州,Kalshi面临又一败诉

周五,美国第六巡回上诉法院作出裁决,支持俄亥俄州和田纳西州对Kalshi的诉讼。法院认定,各州有权将其体育博彩法律适用于该平台的合约。这是Kalshi在上诉过程中遭遇的第二次失利,使得该案距离提交至美国最高法院更近了一步。

核心要点摘要

  • 合约性质认定:第六巡回上诉法院裁定,Kalshi的体育合约不属于“掉期”(swaps)产品,因此不受商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的专属监管。
  • 州法适用权:基于上述认定,俄亥俄州和田纳西州可以对其境内的Kalshi体育合约适用本州的体育博彩法律。
  • 最高法院动向:此前新泽西州已请求最高法院介入此案,预计Kalshi针对最高法院的回应将于11月9日提交。

第二家上诉法院判决支持州政府

9月25日星期五,第六巡回上诉法院的三名法官一致裁定支持俄亥俄州和田纳西州。这一判决是Kalshi在多战线法律斗争中的最新挫折。该平台原本希望其体育合约被认定为“掉期”产品,即由美国期货市场监管机构——商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)独家监管的衍生品类别。

法院在判决书中指出,“掉期”必须与金融后果存在内在联系,例如利率上升或付款违约。相比之下,体育赛事结果带来的后果被认为“过于薄弱、间接且具有投机性”。此外,法院还提出了第二个理由:即使假设这些合约属于掉期范畴,联邦法律也不会剥夺俄亥俄州和田纳西州执行其赌博法律的权力。

具体而言,俄亥俄州的立场得到强化,而此前保护Kalshi在田纳西州运营的禁令随即解除。案件将被发回下级法院审理,此判决将为俄亥俄州、田纳西州、密歇根州和肯塔基州确立先例。

上诉法院意见分歧,最高法院作为仲裁者

这场法律冲突已持续一年多。今年一月,田纳西州曾要求停止Kalshi、Polymarket及Crypto.com的体育合约业务。随后,三家上诉法院相继作出裁决:四月第三巡回上诉法院支持Kalshi(涉及新泽西州),八月第九巡回上诉法院认可了内华达州的立场,如今第六巡回上诉法院加入了支持州政府的阵营。第四巡回上诉法院尚未就马里兰州的案件作出裁决。

The Supreme Court has currently accepted relevant issues. On September 2, New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to rule on conflicting decisions between the circuit courts, and Kalshi's response is expected to be filed by November 9. According to media reports, state elected officials urged the Supreme Court to take up the case through amicus curiae opinions. At the same time, the CFTC also claims exclusive jurisdiction and has sued nine states.

For Kalshi, fragmented state regulation poses a challenge

If this precedent is confirmed, the platform will face cumbersome and scattered compliance requirements, including license applications, age verification, tax payments, and geographical area restrictions. The court rejected Kalshi's argument about compliance costs: While isolating users by state is "technically difficult, time-consuming and costly,""high costs do not mean it is impossible." Currently, Michigan has required Kalshi to verify the geo-blocking function through a third party, or face a daily fine of $500,000.

Sports betting accounts for 83% of Kalshi's trading volume, and its traffic in the United States has increased by 1,520% in the past year. The legal turmoil has attracted widespread attention in the United States, but it is unclear whether the states or the federal government will ultimately set the rules for these markets. The situation remains unclear in the coming months, but Ohio and Tennessee have now restored enforcement powers, and each lawsuit will redraw the legal landscape of sports betting in the United States. At the same time, European regulators are becoming increasingly tough on Polymarket and Kalshi.

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