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BTC Bitcoin may enter a new bull market: Capital rotates from gold and U.S. stocks
James Van Straten, chief analyst at CoinDesk, pointed out that Bitcoin may have entered a new bull market cycle as funds shift away from other major asset classes, especially gold and U.S. stocks. Van Stratten analyzed that the price of gold is currently down about 25% from its historical high, and this spread may prompt some investors to reallocate funds to Bitcoin. Especially if the U.S. stock market pulls back from its historical high, this trend of funds flowing into Bitcoin may become more obvious.
Potential sources of driving force for the next round of gains
When discussing Bitcoin's growth path, Fanstratten pointed out the recent inflow of stablecoins as a repetitive mechanism for funds entering the Bitcoin market. He explained that historically, increases in stablecoin deposits have typically preceded significant increases in bitcoin prices, suggesting that a similar pattern may repeat itself in the current cycle.
In addition, he cited Scott Bessent's bond repurchase operations and their impact, and noted positive market momentum in both the Bitcoin and gold markets following such measures. These bond buybacks refer to large-scale repurchase operations that can have a profound impact on the liquidity of a wider range of asset classes.
Noun explanation: Scott Besant is a well-known macro hedge fund manager known for his influence on bond markets and liquidity strategies, including those bond repurchase actions that influence global market dynamics.
Volatility, Institutional Trends and Long-Term Holders
Van Stratten reviewed market dynamics since Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,000 nearly a year ago. He discussed the increased volatility and cycle time compression observed since then, and attributed part of the reason to options coverage strategies and evolving institutional trading strategies.
Bitwise, a leading provider of cryptocurrency asset analysis, has released a new report showing that Bitcoin holders are increasingly adopting a long-term investment perspective. Van Stratten believes this could make future bull markets less volatile than previous cycles. As institutional demand rises, the next Bitcoin bull market may not be as intense as long-term holders can calm violent fluctuations, driving more sustainable price increases.
Interest rates, the fiat system and global risk factors
Van Stratten also explores the broader macroeconomic environment, involving the central bank's interest rate hikes and the impact of changes in ten-year bond yields on the fiat system. He suggested that while higher yields would attract capital to government bonds, it could restrict speculative capital flows to highly volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies.
He also emphasized the euro zone's sensitivity to the risk of contagion, particularly mentioning the French bond market. Such global events can quickly affect market sentiment and liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.
Altcoins, tokenization and all-weather market liquidity
In addition to Bitcoin, the discussion also covered ongoing tokenization efforts and the challenges altcoins face in all-weather liquidity. Traditional assets are often limited by market trading hours, while cryptocurrencies continue to operate, which can amplify volatility and risk when major macroeconomic events occur.
The mismatch between the 24/7 operation crypto market and the traditional financial system may create a liquidity gap, which in turn exacerbates the collapse and surge of digital assets.
