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LINK 渣打银行启动对Arbitrum ARB代币的覆盖，设定2030年目标价10美元
渣打银行（Standard Chartered）近期启动了对其旗下Arbitrum网络原生代币ARB的正式覆盖研究。该行在报告中设定了明确的价格目标：预计ARB在本年底前将达到0.50美元，并在2030年底升至10美元。尽管报告指出ARB在此期间有望跑赢比特币和以太坊，但该行也坦承，目前持有者从支撑这一看涨观点的核心收入中获得的实际收益有限。
Robinhood Chain推动Arbitrum收入激增五倍
渣打银行设定的10美元目标价约为ARB周二约0.15美元交易价格的66倍。该行描绘了一条阶梯式的价格上涨路径：2026年底达到0.50美元，2027年达到1.50美元，2028年达到3.50美元，2029年达到6.50美元，最终在2030年实现10美元的目标。
负责该行数字资产研究的Geoff Kendrick在致客户的报告中表示，在上述时间窗口内，ARB的表现应优于市值最大的两种加密货币——比特币和以太坊。值得注意的是，该行同时预测以太坊今年价格将达到4,000美元，2030年达到40,000美元；而比特币今年的目标价为100,000美元，2030年则高达500,000美元。
Kendrick的团队上个月开始覆盖Chainlink，设定其2030年目标价为200美元，并对Uniswap及其他DeFi项目给出了类似的2030年预测。这些预测均基于同一项“代币化”（Tokenization）前景假设，即将这些代币视为比比特币和以太坊更具表现力的投资标的。
独特的收入模式与扩张计划
据该行分析，Arbitrum区别于其他项目的关键在于其于7月推出的新收入流。根据“Arbitrum扩张计划”（Arbitrum Expansion Program），任何使用Arbitrum技术构建、但在Arbitrum One或Nova之外结算的新链，需将其净协议收入的10%返还给Arbitrum生态。
该计划的首个亮点客户是于7月1日上线的Robinhood Chain。数据显示，9月1日，Robinhood Chain用户支付了375万美元的手续费，使这个成立仅两个月的网络在当天短暂超越了以太坊主网和Base网络。渣打银行估计，在9月上旬的前两周，该链日均手续费收入平均为280万美元。按照这一速率，该行预测Arbitrum本月将通过扩张计划获得约500万美元的收入。该行指出，Arbitrum目前的月收入水平已是Robinhood Chain出现前的五倍以上。
不过，这一收入增长率随后有所放缓。Robinhood Chain的手续费在9月4日达到604万美元的峰值，至9月14日降至448,616美元。
"We are seeing digital assets transitioning from a state where revenue is not yet relevant to a state where revenue is critical," Kendrick wrote. He added that Arbitrum's model is "highly focused on revenue," so token holders will benefit from this trend. He also expects more traditional financial chains to be deployed on the same technology stack, which will increase the likelihood of fee revenue and may prompt ARB to revalue to Layer-1 level valuation levels.
2028 US$4 trillion in tokenized assets support forecast
Standard Chartered Bank's forecast is based on the core assumption: by the end of 2028, the total assets in the chain will increase from the current approximately US$340 billion to US$4 trillion, of which tokenized stocks alone are expected to reach US$750 billion. Kendrick believes that Arbitrum is enterprise-level infrastructure for banks and asset management companies that want to move financial instruments to blockchain.
He pointed to positive factors such as DTCC's work on tokenized stocks and the unimplemented Clarity Act. This US$4 trillion size assumption was also the basic logic of the bank's previous release of the Chainlink research report in August (setting LINK's 2030 target price at US$200).
Risk warning
Standard Chartered Bank also clearly pointed out potential risks: tokenization may proceed slower than model predictions; competitive blockchains may take away market share; and, the direct value captured by the ARB token itself from the huge fees flowing through the network is very limited.
Previous reports have analyzed in detail the allocation mechanism of the expansion plan: of the 10% share, 8% goes to the Arbitrum DAO treasury and 2% goes to the Developers Guild. As of early September, the funds totaled approximately $1.32 million over a 30-day period. The funds are mainly used for DAO operations and will not automatically flow directly into the pockets of ARB holders.
