Arbitrum prices fall back to around $0.20 after soaring in September

Core Points

ARB prices are still about 20% below their September highs.

Buyers are defending support around $0.19-$0.20.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows weakening rebound momentum.

Licensing fees made up the majority of reported revenue in September.

Treasury revenue is not automatically distributed to ARB holders.

ARB Price Dynamics Analysis

At 07:22 UTC on October 2, ARB quoted price on Bitstamp was approximately $0.205, which was approximately 2.46% higher than the closing price of the previous trading day. With the trading session not yet over, this modest rebound left prices just above support after several days of correction.

ARB remained above the September highs and lows

ARB traded in the $0.073-$0.10 range for most of June, July and August as selling pressure eased and a bottom formed. Subsequent attempts to rebound were repeatedly blocked by a downward blue trend line connecting May and July highs. Breaking through this trend line before accelerating in September allowed the rebound to continue and surpass the previous high decline pattern.

The first sharp rise followed a correction to around $0.132, where buyers re-entered and stood above the end of August lows. The subsequent push pushed ARB to a September needle-like high near $0.255. This structure of "higher lows followed by higher highs" establishes the recovery more clearly than a mere breakthrough of the trend line.

尽管此后 ARB 有所回落，但其价格仍远高于九月的低点。近期的下跌削弱了短期趋势，但尚未破坏更大的整体结构。其下一个支撑测试位于贯穿八月底和九月低点的上升蓝色线条上，当前烛图对应的位置约为 $0.19。

这条对角线靠近早期的九月峰值，为买家提供了两个近期的图表参考点：复苏低点的上升路径，以及此前阻止价格上涨的水平区域。目前这两个参考点均落入或接近 $0.19–$0.20 区间。

近期支撑测试的重要性超过远处的简单移动平均线（SMA）

价格此前已触及该水平区域并实现反弹，近期K线留下了下影线。10月2日的烛图最低触及约 $0.1991 随后走高。这表明买家在 $0.02 附近做出反应，而针对更接近 $0.19 的上升趋势线的完全回测尚未确认。

对于关注反弹的人士而言，关键观察在于这些反弹是否持久。单次会话中的影线仅代表被拒绝的价格；若连续数个会话在支撑位上方企稳，则可能提供持续买入的更强证据。如果每次反弹都在更低的位置停止，并将 ARB 拉回同一底线，则表明复苏难以重拾势头。

The ARB is still above the three SMAs mentioned above, and the 50SMA is higher than the 100SMA and 200SMA. Each simple moving average tracks the daily closing price during its specified period, and this arrangement reflects improvement since the summer bottom was reached. Moving averages describe a slower recovery, while recent support tests test whether buyers are still defending that position today.

Falling to the first deeper region would mean a further decline of about 27%-29% from $0.205. As a result, prices may suffer significant additional losses while remaining above their long-term moving average. The distance factor makes reactions around $0.19-$0.20 more valuable for evaluating immediate pullbacks than ARB still trading above the 50SMA.

RSI momentum has cooled significantly

The 14-cycle Relative Strength Index (RSI), used to compare recent gains and losses, is approximately 57.7, which is below the smooth yellow line of approximately 65.1 and well below the overbought reading in September.

During the rise, ARB hit a higher closing high, while RSI formed a lower corresponding peak. This bearish divergence suggests weak momentum behind later price highs, adding caution to the rally ahead of the current correction.

在 57.7 的水平下，根据指标计算，平均收益仍大于平均亏损。动能虽减弱但未跌破其中轴，因此该读数本身并不确立反转。若价格跌破支撑且 RSI 持续低于 50，将比单纯的背离提供更强烈的警告信号。

授权许可费主导 Arbitrum 九月收入

虽然 ARB 价格有所回调，但最新的收入报告显示 Arbitrum 迎来了更强劲的一个月。

据报道，Arbitrum 九月收入为 545 万美元，其中包括来自 Orbit 授权许可费的 475 万美元。授权许可费占报告总额的大约 87%。

企业可以使用 Arbitrum 的技术运营专用链，符合条件的网络将根据 Arbitrum 扩展计划贡献协议净收入的一部分。这为 Arbitrum 带来了一条与其链上活动挂钩的收入来源，加上其自身共享网络上产生的费用。

官方文件解释了资金分配比例：协议净收入的 8% 归入 Arbitrum DAO 国库，2% 归入开发者公会。这两部分共同构成了该项目 10% 的份额。

例如，100 万美元符合条件的净协议收入将产生 8 万美元的国库贡献和 2 万美元的公会拨款。这是协议的说明，而非报告的月度付款。计算始于净收入，因此将相同百分比应用于总用户费用会得到不同的结果。

Arbitrum has also launched Priority Gas Auctions (PGA), which has increased competitive revenue regarding transaction sequencing. Trading applications can attach priority fees when early execution is critical to them. According to PGA rules, 97% of the priority fees collected go to the DAO treasury and 3% goes to the Developers Guild. These fees supplement the larger share of licensing contributions in the September report segment.

ARB holders participate in governance decisions, but treasury revenue does not automatically pay out to each holder. Therefore, to understand how Arbitrum revenue is related to the ARB, you need to look at what these funds are used for, including development and other approved expenditures.

Recurrent income can provide the DAO with more resources for these tasks. However, September's total revenue did not clarify how long licensing revenue would last as contribution chain activities changed. A large number of contributions concentrated in a single category can vary significantly between months. Tracking this segment over time will help investors determine whether the strengthening of treasury revenue is sustainable.

The next rally needs to hold on to earnings

If $0.19-$0.20 gains support:

Recovering $0.22-$0.23 and maintaining the area shows buyers are reversing some of the recent decline. This may strengthen the possibility of another attempt to hit $0.245-$0.255.

If the support level breaks:

The daily line closed below the uptrend line and around $0.19, and then unable to retract, which could weaken the immediate setting and bring deeper areas of support into view.

Losing near-term support will be a setback earlier than breaking the September highs (approximately $0.13-$0.135). This lower area marks where buyers had previously restarted their gains, so subsequent losses would cause more damage to the broader recovery.

The rally became more convincing when the renewed sell-off failed to push prices back below the ground where buyers recovered. Such a response would provide more solid evidence of demand than the first green candle after the fall.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Technical points are only approximations and reflect the chart under the time stamps stated.