Bernstein: Robinhood's on-chain expenses may reach $160 million per year by 2028

Bernstein predicts that annual fee revenue from Robinhood's blockchain network may reach US$160 million.

Roninhood's blockchain network is expected to become the main fee generation engine. Analysts at Bernstein predict that the network could generate as much as $160 million in annual fee revenue by 2028. In a report shared with media on Tuesday, the company noted that on-chain trading activity is shifting to tokenized stocks-a combination of activities that analysts believe is creating a self-reinforcing virtuous cycle.

In the short period of time since its online launch on July 1, Bernstein said that trading volume of tokenized stocks has accounted for about 27% of the total, while native Memecoin pairs has accounted for 36% of online activities from nearly 100% in the early days of launch. The change helped the network climb rapidly in the overall revenue rankings.

Core Points

• Bernstein predicts that annual fee revenue from Robinhood's blockchain network could reach US$160 million by 2028.
• Currently, tokenized stocks account for about 27% of the chain's trading volume, changing the situation dominated by memin in the early stages of launch.
• DefiLlama data shows that the network has generated US$2.13 million in fees in the past 24 hours and currently leads the daily fee rankings.
• Bernstein attributed the growth in tokenized stocks to the liquidity and "reflective demand" brought by the Uniswap Automated Market Maker Pool (AMM) for pairing memoin with stock tokens.
• The CEO of AMC Entertainment criticized Robinhood's tokenized stock products for having nothing to do with AMC, implying potential reputational and regulatory sensitivities.

Increased proportion of tokenized equity in activity on the Robinhood chain

Bernstein's views focus mainly on the evolution of transaction demand on the Robinhood network. The report shows that trading volume of tokenized stocks has expanded to approximately 27% of total trading volume, while the relative importance of memoin trading has declined.

Analysts say the shift is more than just a temporary rotation of retail investors 'preferences. They believe that the underlying market structure encourages both sides of a token pair to attract attention and liquidity-especially when memin is paired with stock tokens in the same automated trading venue.

Why "reflective demand" may strengthen trading volume

In Bernstein's analytical framework, the Uniswap Automated Market Maker (AMM) pool is a key mechanism. The company points out that these pools pair memocoins with stock tokens and can generate "reflective demand" for both assets. In practice, this means that activity associated with pairing one side-whether due to a trader's interest in memin or exposure to tokenized stocks-will overflow and translate into demand for the other side.

This distinction is critical to investors because it suggests that Robinhood's fee engine may rely less on a single category of token activity and more on a broader cycle that connects the motivations of different users. While memo trading can be volatile, if the pool is designed to maintain repetitive activity, paired liquidity and cross-asset participation help stabilize trading volumes-at least in the early stages.

Current expense leadership: DefiLlama shows single-day revenue of US$2.13 million

Early monetization performance also supports this optimistic narrative. Only more than two months after its launch, according to DefiLlama's fee dashboard data classified by chain, the Robinhood network has become the leading network measured by daily fees. DefiLlama data quoted from media shows that the network's fees in the past 24 hours were US$2.13 million.

This "leading" position is particularly important because transaction fees are one of the most direct ways to measure the conversion of network usage into direct revenue. Bernstein's forecast for 2028 is based on the premise that current fee momentum can expand as tokenized stock trading increases as a proportion of activity.

Valuation optimism and review surrounding tokenized stocks resurfaces

Bernstein's comments came after the company had previously adjusted its stance on Robinhood stocks. On July 20, Bernstein raised its target price for Robinhood (HOOD) shares from $130 to $160 and maintained its "outperform" rating, while predicting the company's forecast growth in its market business and tokenized equity business.

In pre-market trading on Tuesday, Yahoo Finance data showed Robinhood's shares were basically flat. However, tokenized stocks are not without controversy. Previously, it was reported that AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron criticized Robinhood's blockchain-based shares for lack of any connection to AMC. Aaron called the product "shocking" and said AMC would ask its external securities legal advisers to request an investigation.

While Bernstein's model emphasizes demand-side growth brought about by tokenization, Aaron's remarks highlight another risk dimension: how a company's "economic exposure" to stock tokens is perceived by issuers, and how this perception may intersect with legal or regulatory obligations. Even if trading volumes continue to rise, controversy could change the trajectory of future partnerships, product approvals or public sentiment.

What to watch next

Traders and investors should pay attention to whether trading volume in tokenized stocks continues to expand after early releases and whether daily fees remain resilient as the dominance of the cryptocurrency weakens. At the same time, developments that follow the AMC planned investigation may become a factor in the evolution of tokenized stocks on public networks.