Why could Monad's token unlock in November 2026 be its biggest test yet?

The biggest test Monad has faced since its main online launch in November 2025

The most severe test Monad has faced since its main online launch in November 2025 will come on November 24, 2026. By then, 16.8 billion MON tokens will be unlocked in a single event. This amount represents approximately 32.8% of the total number of tokens currently in circulation, giving early investors, the Monad team and the Category Labs vault the right to sell for the first time. Can real market demand absorb such a huge new supply without causing a sharp drop in prices?

What was actually unlocked on November 24

Monad's total supply is fixed at 100 billion MON units. At the launch of the project, approximately 49.5 billion tokens (45.7% of the total supply) were released through public sales, airdrops and ecosystem distribution. The remaining 50.5 billion tokens are distributed to teams, investors and vaults, all of which have a one-year lock-up period (cliff period).

The lock-up period will end on November 24, 2026, a full year after the main online line. On this day, approximately 16.8 billion MONs will be unlocked and transferable. The specific composition is as follows:

• 10.7 billion MON owned by Monad team
• 4.925 billion MON owned by investors
• 1 billion MON owned by Category Labs vault
• The rest is related to validator reward allocation

According to Tokenomist.ai, as of mid-September 2026, only approximately 11.8 billion MON tokens were actually in circulation and tradable (approximately 11.8% of the total supply). The number of unlocks in November alone exceeded the current entire circulating supply, so traders regarded it as a decisive event in MON's first year.

Why cliff attribution makes the risk higher

Monad uses "Cliff Vetting" for its team and ecosystem allocation rather than linear attribution. Linear attribution gradually releases tokens into the market, allowing time for price adjustments; cliff attribution is the opposite: no tokens are unlocked for a set period of time, and then a large number of tokens are released at one time.

This structure concentrates supply shocks in one day rather than spreading them out over months. After November 24, Monad's ownership plan shifted to unlocking approximately 1.16 billion MONs per month and continuing in smaller batches until 2050. But the cliff unlock itself is the most dramatic one-day supply event Monad has faced since the token generation event.

What is the value of the U.S. dollar unlocked this time?

From late August to September 2026, the trading price of MON fluctuated between US$0.023 and US$0.030, and as of mid-September, its price was approximately US$0.027. At this level, the unlocked market value of 16.8 billion tokens is approximately US$410 million to US$450 million. In early 2026, when the MON trading price was close to US$0.037, analysts at the time believed that the value of the same batch of unlocked tokens was close to US$600 million. The dollar value of the event fluctuates with the token price, but the number of tokens and the proportion of the supply remain unchanged, so traders focus first on the unlocked volume denominated in MON, followed by dollar pricing.

Can network fundamentals absorb these supplies?

Token unlocking does not automatically cause the token price to collapse. Whether MON can stabilize depends on whether organic demand, rather than incentive-driven activity, has grown enough to attract new sellers.

The current fundamentals are mixed. According to data cited by Longbridge and MEXC, as of April 1, 2026, Monad's total lock-in value (TVL) was approximately US$355 million, making it the fastest Layer-1 blockchain to reach a TVL of US$300 million since its recent release. By mid-April, the online analyst account aixbt reported that TVL had climbed further to about US$800 million, indicating that funds had quickly flowed into the network's DeFi pool during this period. Major protocols including Uniswap, Curve and Morpho have been deployed on the chain.

However, according to DeFiLlama data reports in multiple articles that during 2026, daily chain fee revenue was less than $3000 for a long time. This means that hundreds of millions of dollars in deposited capital generate annual fee income that is only six-digit lows. A report also from aixbt in mid-April 2026 pointed out that Monad's annualized expense income was approximately US$1.1 million, compared with TVL's US$800 million, and mentioned a US$30 million repurchase program that is expected to last only a few months of operation. The post mentioned an upstream token unlock worth approximately $621 million, although citing an earlier date than the November 24 cliff described in Monad's official attribution plan; the difference may reflect informal rounding in social media posts rather than a change to the recorded unlock date.

Lower fee income relative to TVL is often described as "parked capital": funds stay in the DeFi pool to earn revenue or incentives, rather than paying real Usage fees. If this pattern continues into November, unlocking will increase the available supply of tokens that have not yet captured corresponding value from their own network activity.

Historical implications for November dates

Smart money in the cryptocurrency market usually starts opening positions 30 to 60 days before the known unlock date, which means that market sentiment around MON was already in place before November 24. Analysts covering the entire unlock in 2026 unanimously marked it as a "hard deadline" for Monad's fundamentals, meaning that expense revenue and TVL growth must catch up with its valuation before new selling pressure hits.

Conclusion

Monad's unlocking on November 24, 2026 will release 16.8 billion MONs, worth approximately US$410 million to US$450 million based on mid-September 2026 prices. At this time, the market background is: daily chain fees have been long-term. Less than US$3000, while TVL reached US$800 million earlier that year. Cliff-like attribution structures concentrate this supply shock in one day rather than spread it out. Monad's TVL growth and protocol integration show true ecosystem building, but its fee-to-TVL ratio remains one of the lowest in the chain with comparable lock-in capital. The gap between deposited capital and generated income is the specific indicator to be tested for this unlocking.

References

TradingView Report: Monad (MON) -16.8 billion tokens unlocked-November 24, 2026
Tokenomist.ai Data: Monad token attribution plans and unlocking events
CryptoRank Report: Monad's main online launch, 11 billion tradable MON tokens
AO Trading Analysis: Monad (MON) transaction volume surged 21-25% to US$185 million: On-chain data displays caution
CoinMarketCap Analysis: Latest Monad (MON) Price Analysis
aixbt's Post on X: About Monad TVL, Fee Revenue and Repo Track