Bitcoin this week: Focus on the CLARITY vote and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision

Bitcoin enters the third week of September: Trading below key support levels, waiting for the Federal Reserve resolution and the CLARITY bill vote

Bitcoin enters the third week of September, with prices still operating below important weekly level support levels. Traders are preparing for two high-profile U.S. catalysts: Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision and Tuesday's Senate procedural vote on the proposed CLARITY Act.

While macro expectations and policy headlines are driving short-term caution, market structures remain complex. On the one hand, indicators related to funding rates show that bullish leverage continues to accumulate; on the other hand, Bitcoin's latest weekly close failed to hold the technical threshold that bulls have been defending.

Core Points

• CME Group's FedWatch pricing has shifted to another rate hike, with the probability of leaving rates unchanged at the time of writing of approximately 13.3%.
• The Senate is scheduled to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on Tuesday, and if passed, the bill will be submitted to the plenary for debate.
• Sanitation's crypto sentiment data showed that the number of open contracts in Bitcoin fell significantly in the week ending September 11, indicating that traders were cutting exposure before volatility intensified.
• CryptoQuant's research points out that since late May, the composite funding rate has returned to positive values, indicating that long positions are increasingly paying fees to short positions.
• Technically, Bitcoin fell below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $77,380, while a divergence from the RSI remains a potential bullish factor.

The Fed's decision becomes the main volatility trigger

For risky assets, Wednesday's Fed results are undoubtedly the focus. A number of policy developments are converging: persistent inflation concerns, energy-driven price pressures, and ongoing debate within central banks over whether interest rates should be raised.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market previously believed that a pause in interest rate hikes was unlikely. As of writing, the implied probability that interest rates will remain at current levels is approximately 13.3%.

Markets have previously reacted differently to different decisions-especially when Chairman Kevin Walsh kept interest rates unchanged and some officials tended to raise interest rates-laying the foundation for the rapid swing traders expected.

The shift in pricing was accompanied by no major upside surprises in inflation data, but crude oil prices still posed headwinds. Despite the hawkish market reaction after the release of CPI and PPI data, it reflects high energy costs and a sense that supply constraints may not be alleviated.

The Kobeissi Letter's comments highlighted how disruptions related to key shipping routes exacerbate energy shocks. In a quoted post, the account warned that about 30 million barrels of oil a day may not be transported through certain routes and issued additional warnings about risks in the Strait of Mandeb. The analysis also pointed to rising consumer inflation expectations, with gasoline prices and tariffs seen as major contributors.

The CLARITY bill vote becomes a recent sentiment test

At the same time, legislative progress on crypto regulation in the United States is also on the agenda. Tuesday's Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act could be a catalyst for speculative positioning as it determines whether the bill can advance to plenary debate.

On Monday, Senate Republicans released what they called the "final, best and final plan" for the bill's text after bipartisan negotiations aimed at establishing a clearer legal framework. Senator Cynthia Loomis, who issued a 635-page updated proposal, said the bill is ready after a year of negotiations. She also highlighted moral limitations in the proposal and argued that a procedural "no" vote would oppose reform and leave the U.S. digital asset market lacking adequate protection.

This procedural step requires 60 votes to pass, and a vote is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. Tuesday. If the bill passes, it can be moved to the full Senate for debate. If it fails, traders could reassess the timetable for regulatory clarity-an uncertainty that could spill over into broader risk appetite.

Markets remain cautious about expectations for passage of the bill. On Polymarket, it is reported that the odds that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026 are about 34%, the first time since early August that a higher probability has been seen.

Derivatives positioning: Traders reduce risk before headlines

On the eve of Tuesday's Senate vote and Wednesday's Fed announcement, multiple analytical snapshots suggested traders were adjusting their exposure rather than aggressively betting on the next step.

Based on Sand's analysis of the number of open contracts on each exchange, positioning had changed before the two major headlines occurred. Sanctuary commented that the market seemed to "have taken action," noting that derivatives participants had begun to prepare for volatility.

Specifically, Sanitation data showed that in the week ending September 11, open interest in bitcoin contracts denominated in BTC fell 13.5%-from approximately 321,497 BTC to approximately 278,151 BTC, followed by only a moderate rebound. During the same period, spot prices were reported to have fallen by about 5%. Sanitation also said the positioning level was about 20% lower than before the mid-August rally.

In practice, this means that reducing open interest will usually limit the extent to which leverage amplifies price fluctuations. Still, the decline in open interest may also be consistent with traders waiting for confirmation of upcoming policy decisions.

Funding rates remain bullish, with Bitcoin trading around US$80,000

Although traders have reduced their exposure to derivatives, on-chain research points out that the sentiment reflected in funding rates continues to improve. CryptoQuant believes that new signals from perpetual contract funding rates indicate that bullish pressure is building as BTC/USD is trading around $80,000.

CryptoQuant pointed out that since the end of May, the comprehensive funding rate has gradually increased, following a period of negative funding rates that began in early March. Funding rates are driven by a balance of long and short demand and can reveal whether the market is paying to hold long or short positions.

In the cited research, CryptoQuant described how bear market sentiment dominated during the "suspicion phase" when funding rates reflected one of the most bear market readings among Binance derivatives. It recommended that the accumulation of short positions would help drive the May rally after a decline of about 52%.

CryptoQuant further observed that cumulative 30-day funding rates with negative currency positions often coincide with major pullbacks late in the bear market and during bull cycles. This pattern-based framework is useful for traders, but it does not eliminate uncertainty-funding rates remain bullish even if price movements later fail to follow up.

There have also been previous reports that the lack of spot market participation in Bitcoin's rise suggests that the momentum driven by derivatives does not always translate into a sustained spot driven upward trend.

Weekly structure weakens: Support falls below the 50-week EMA

Technical analysis remains the clearest real-time map for judging whether risks are rising or falling. Bitcoin's latest weekly close failed to hold on to the level of bullish attention.

According to reports, Bitcoin closed at around $76,800 on Sunday weekly and failed to hold key support levels. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital said weekly close must hold to $78,300. He warned that failure to do this could reopen the possibility of repeating the "break-through failure" pattern seen earlier in May.

Rekt Capital also pointed to charts with lower highs, indicating that Bitcoin continues to maintain a long-term bear market structure. In addition, the weekly line closed below Bitcoin's 50-week exponential moving average of about $77,380-a trend line that bulls typically hope to recover in a more sustained bullish transition.

Looking to the technical level of the future, Rekt Capital cited a 21-week EMA near about US$72,270 as a potential "life-and-death line." He added that the 21-week and 50-week EMA typically serve as support levels in bull markets, and losing them sustainably would be evidence that Bitcoin has not yet entered a fully established bull market cycle.

Despite these weaknesses, there is still a bullish factor in the background: Bitcoin's RSI remains at a higher low point in 2026, maintaining what some analysts see as a supporting signal, even as prices are temporarily falling.

Follow-up Focus

As the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday approach, traders could quickly reshape risk-especially if derivatives positioning swings with any procedural or macro outcomes. In addition to the headlines, investors should pay close attention to whether Bitcoin can regain the 50-week EMA area and whether the RSI divergence continues to serve as a confirmation signal or recedes as support weakens.