What are the reasons for the rise in the cryptocurrency market today?

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The cryptocurrency market rebounded after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. Bitcoin regained its footing above $76,000, and the prices of several major cryptocurrencies rose. CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan pointed out that the decline in the number of Bitcoin UTXO (unspent trading outputs) at a loss may reduce the risk of the market returning to a full-blown bear cycle.

Why did cryptocurrencies rise today?

On September 17, the cryptocurrency market as a whole rose as Bitcoin rebounded above US$76,000 after the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, a move that was widely expected by traders before the announcement. Subsequently, Bitcoin and several major altcoins stabilized after experiencing significant selling pressure at the beginning of the week.

Macroeconomic policies promote a rebound in the crypto market

Although the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4%, the crypto market still maintained an upward trend. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates since 2023, but the move has not triggered a new round of selling in the crypto market. The main reason is that traders had already expected the decision. On the eve of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, interest rate futures showed a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. Since the change has been priced in advance by the market, the actual announcement has limited impact on the market.

比特币的走势清晰地反映了这一点：在决议公布前，BTC跌至约75,350美元，而在公告发布后几分钟内便回升至76,100美元以上，随后触及约76,500美元，最终稳定在76,138美元附近。CoinMarketCap数据显示，比特币交易价格约为76,608美元，24小时内上涨0.99%。以太坊价格接近2,442.81美元，上涨1.73%；BNB上涨2.30%，至约726.06美元。XRP上涨1.24%，Solana上涨3.50%，至约100.60美元。

更广泛的市场也处于正值区域。CoinMarketCap显示总市值约为2.62万亿美元，上涨1.45%，CMC20指数上涨1.38%。恐惧与贪婪指数读数为64。这有助于解释为何今日加密市场上涨：虽然美联储确实加息了，但投资者早已为这一决定做好了布局，因此加密货币价格的反应更多基于已知信息，而非加息本身。

比特币成交量与市场活跃度

比特币依然是此次行情的核心，CoinMarketCap数据显示其24小时交易量约为290.9亿美元。以太坊的交易量约为153.4亿美元，USDC则约为178.1亿美元。这些数据之所以重要，是因为当前的加密市场上涨并非仅由比特币驱动。多种大型加密货币价格走高，尽管在整个板块中表现参差不齐。

Zcash是表现最强的资产之一，7天内上涨15.07%，交易价格约为1,371.21美元。与此同时，部分资产仍承受压力。XRP在7天内下跌5.38%，Dogecoin同期下跌4.41%。这表明加密市场的复苏是不均衡的，而非所有资产同步上涨。

此外，还需考虑近期特定的加密市场压力。CLARITY法案未能推进削弱了市场情绪，并引发了超过3亿美元的清算。比特币和以太坊ETF也在9月15日记录了合计5.92亿美元的净流出。因此，仅用美联储的政策无法完全解释今日加密市场的上涨。交易者还在响应价格水平、交易活动以及市场对近期挫折的吸收情况。

Crypto Dan认为熊市周期可能性降低

故事的另一重要部分来自Crypto Dan在X平台上的帖子，该帖子关注比特币链上数据而非短期价格走势。根据帖子内容，处于亏损状态的UTXO比例已大幅下降。

Crypto Market Bear Cycle Analysis | Source: CryptoQuant
Crypto Dan认为，在市场周期中类似的跌幅并非简单的短期反弹。他表示，此类幅度的变动在过去曾与熊市阶段的结束和牛市周期的开始相关联。

His argument is important because it provides an alternative perspective on "why the crypto market is rising today." Although short-term pressures have been caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, ETF outflows, and the CLARITY bill setback, on-chain data may indicate a larger shift in the structure of the Bitcoin market. Crypto Dan also pointed out that recent negative factors may continue to affect market sentiment. The Federal Reserve has retained the possibility of raising interest rates again before the end of the year, while the CLARITY bill remains unresolved.

However, he believes these short-term issues may not be enough to erase ongoing on-chain changes. In his words, the market may understand the importance of the current period later.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment is risky, and on-chain indicators or macroeconomic events cannot guarantee future price performance.