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POL Galaxy Research analyzed Polymarket retail transaction data in depth: Nearly 70% of accounts lost money
Galaxy Research analyzed 2.9 million retail (retail) accounts on the Polymarket platform. According to its on-chain data analysis of the forecast platform's public settlement records, the results show that 69.2% of accounts are ultimately below the break-even point. Overall funding in these retail accounts shrank by $338.9 million during the study period.
Polymarket Traders Key Findings
To ensure data accuracy, Galaxy Research excluded accounts with an average of more than 50 orders per active trading day because these accounts are likely to be part of automated trading procedures. The exclusion removed 125,429 accounts (4.1% of the total), although these accounts accounted for 80.8% of all orders and 41% of nominal trading volume. The remaining 2.9 million accounts represent the retail population evaluated in this study.
Among these retail accounts, as much as 69.2% of the final results were below the break-even point. Overall, the retail account group analyzed had cumulative losses of $338.9 million.
Characteristics of retail participation revealed by loss data
Behavioral data shows that there is an obvious "loss" problem after a loss. The study found that after a loss, 15.2% of accounts did not trade again within 30 days; after a win, the proportion was only 6.1%. This close to 2.5 times post-loss inactivity gap suggests that loss-making traders are more likely to exit the platform than profitable traders.
专业化程度也与交易结果密切相关。约 44.1% 的交易者将其超过 60% 的活动集中在一个特定主题上。其中，体育类专家是盈利能力最低的类别，而科技和科学类专家则是盈利能力最强的。此外，盈利的交易者往往仓位稍大，其持仓中位数为 13.96 美元，而未盈利交易者的持仓中位数仅为 10.00 美元。
Polymarket 基于 Polygon 网络进行结算。Galaxy 指出，其分析涵盖的是 Polymarket 的国际平台，这与该公司通过受商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）许可的子公司推出的美国应用程序是分开的。近期韩国警方对 Polymarket 投注展开的 1270 万美元调查，以及 Sportradar 扩大覆盖 20 多个体育联盟的数据合作，都体现了该平台日益扩大的国际影响力和受到的监管关注，这也正是被分析订单簿所处的宏观背景。文章发布时，Polygon 生态系统的代币价格为 0.109896 美元，24 小时内基本持平。
风险提示与市场背景
总体亏损数字反映的是整体人口层面的结果，而非针对任何单个账户的预测。然而，在近 290 万个账户中几乎 3.39 亿美元的巨额亏损规模凸显了一个事实：对于将预测市场视为简单获利途径的零售参与者来说，这里存在着实质性的金融风险。
During the study period, Clear Act odds tracked on Polymarket and other high-traffic political markets drove significant retail participation. For example, electoral markets such as Brazil's presidential campaign have attracted a lot of account activity, but the final performance of these accounts has mostly tended to lose money.
Core Summary (TLDR)
- Galaxy Research analyzed Polymarket's 2.9 million retail accounts and found that 69.2% of the accounts ended up below the break-even point.
- The overall retail community lost US$338.9 million; accounts with an average of more than 50 orders per active trading day were excluded due to suspected robots.
- The figure of 69.2% is an overall result for a large account population and is not a forecast for individual traders, but it sends a clear signal of significant risk to retail participants in the forecast market.
