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Bitcoin tests $80,000 mark,$731 million ETF inflows collide with the risk of Fed interest rate hikes

2026-09-06 00:36:50
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Bitcoin is fighting fiercely at the US$80,000 mark: The game between institutional buying and interest rate hikes

Despite experiencing one of the strongest institutional buying days of the year, Bitcoin is still struggling to firmly hold its US$80,000 defense line. Investors are weighing the recovery prospects of a "devaluation trade" with the risk of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin prices traded in the range of $79,000 to $80,000 on Friday, having previously hit a high of about $81,400. The reversal followed a report on U.S. employment data that exceeded expectations: the report showed that 162,000 new jobs were created in August, which brought the market's implicit probability of a Fed rate hike in September back to around 60%. Treasury yields initially soared, and then 10-year Treasury yields stabilized at around 4.77%.

This has put Bitcoin in a pincer attack between two unusually powerful forces: surging demand for institutional exchange funds (ETFs) on the one hand, and continuing concerns about inflation in the bond market on the other.

Institutional buyers re-enter in large numbers

On Thursday, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted $730.9 million in capital inflows, the largest net inflow in a single day since January 14. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT accounted for approximately $454 million, ARK21 Shares increased by approximately $138 million, and Fidelity attracted approximately $74 million. Total ETF assets climbed to more than $103 billion, equivalent to more than 6% of Bitcoin's market value.

The move continues the strong momentum seen in August, when the funds attracted about $3.52 billion, setting their strongest monthly performance in 2026.

Treasury bond repurchase rekindled the "currency devaluation transaction"

The rally accelerated as the U.S. Treasury Department announced that it would increase liquidity-backed repurchase of long-term government debt. The move has helped weaken the dollar and reinvigorated demand for scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold. According to Reuters technical analysis, Bitcoin subsequently rebounded by about 30% from a low of more than $60,000.

CoinShares described the move as Bitcoin being "traded like gold again," and concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and sovereign debt underpinned the appeal of non-government value stores.

CPI data may determine the fate of a breakthrough of US$83,000

For bulls, the problem is that when interest rate expectations rise, Bitcoin still behaves as a liquidity sensitive risky asset. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller briefly eased the pressure, saying he might support keeping interest rates unchanged if inflation continued to cool. As bond yields and the dollar fell, Bitcoin immediately soared above $81,000. But Friday's employment data partially reversed that trend.

From a technical perspective, Reuters pointed to resistance at around $82,793, while Galaxy Research highlighted a 50-week moving average of around $81,000. If a sustained breakthrough is achieved, the road to US$90,000 will be reopened; if it fails, the US$75,000 mid-range region will become an important support area.

So the next major catalyst is not another cryptocurrency headline, but the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on September 11, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision released in the following days. Bitcoin has institutional demand that challenges $80,000, but whether it can maintain its position may depend on whether inflation allows the Fed to stop tightening policy.

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