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BTC CoinShares: Bitcoin is showing a gold-like trend, with two major conditions needed to meet to break through US$80,000.
CoinShares pointed out that the price behavior of Bitcoin in the past two weeks has increasingly shown characteristics similar to gold. At the same time, concerns about fiscal sustainability in the United States are heating up again, providing support for the rise in bitcoin prices. According to the company's analysis, the U.S. Treasury's increase in long-term treasury bonds and market concerns about public debt are important drivers of Bitcoin's rebound from a low of $60,000 to $80,100.
The main constraint still lies in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy
However, CoinShares emphasized that the main factor limiting further Bitcoin's rise remains the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The company's assessment believes that if Bitcoin wants to achieve a continuous breakthrough above US$80,000, one of the following two scenarios may be needed:
Scenario 1: The easing of geopolitical conflicts leads to a decline in inflation expectations
If the conflict with Iran is resolved, it may lead to a fall in oil prices, which in turn lowers inflation expectations. This development is expected to reduce inflationary pressures faced by the Fed, creating a more favorable market environment for risky assets.
Scenario 2: Confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds weakens further
The second scenario involves the continued decline in market confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds. CoinShares said that as investors become more concerned about the sustainability of U.S. debt, funds may shift to non-government credit backed value stores such as Bitcoin and gold, which may further strengthen demand for Bitcoin.
The above content does not constitute investment advice.
