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BTC Bitcoin has been repeatedly sawing at the US$80,000 mark. Why has there not been a significant sell-off?
Bitcoin has tried many times to break the key US$80,000 mark, but all failed. However, a question more worthy of discussion than "can a breakthrough" is: In the current macro environment, why has Bitcoin not fallen significantly further? After all, given the intensifying conflict between the United States and Iran, the Fed's hawkish stance, and the surprisingly strong jobs data, the current macro picture is by no means bullish.
Under negative fundamentals, Bitcoin should have been under pressure
The latest geopolitical developments emerged this weekend. Earlier, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy ships, and the two sides immediately launched a new round of exchange of fire. Subsequently, the United States launched a strike on three Iranian crude oil carriers; at the same time, Middle Eastern countries also attacked oil tankers and US-related ships in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz.
The impact of the escalation goes far beyond geopolitics itself. Affected by renewed concerns about energy supply, Brent crude oil prices are once again approaching $100 a barrel. Higher oil prices will directly push up inflation, making the Fed's policy decisions next week more challenging.
The U.S. central bank has become another major factor affecting Bitcoin. At last week's Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh took a significantly more hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation was still too high and the Fed still had "work to do." After the speech, the probability of a September rate hike jumped, and Friday's jobs report pushed it even higher. Data showed that the United States created 162,000 new jobs in August, almost triple the market expectation of 56,000, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.
Although this is good news for the economy, risky assets have not benefited as expectations of loose monetary policy receded due to rising inflation. The probability of raising interest rates in September once soared to 65%, the two-year U.S. bond yield rose to its highest level since January 2025, the U.S. dollar index strengthened, and the stock market was under pressure. Bitcoin initially fell $3,000, but then rebounded quickly.
Absorb negative: Capital inflows support the currency price
All of the above factors create an atmosphere that is extremely unfavorable to risky assets such as Bitcoin. However, even over the weekend when attacks in the Middle East resumed, Bitcoin remained above $80,000, rising by about 25% in the past month.
The strong performance of cryptocurrencies is partly due to the good performance of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These funds continue to attract large amounts of money, as Thursday was a typical example. More than $730 million flowed into ETFs that day, setting a single-day high since January.
Even more impressive is that gold has given up most of its gains after rebounding in mid-August, while Bitcoin has remained firm. However, this does not guarantee that Bitcoin will not fall. In fact, there are two main threats in the next 10 days or so:
The first is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on September 11. If inflation readings are higher than expected, especially in the context of rising oil prices, it could push interest rate hikes further higher.
Next is the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled to end on September 16. If interest rates are raised and accompanied by Chairman Walsh's hawkish guidance, Bitcoin could eventually fall below key support levels, as discussed yesterday.
