Analysis of Bitcoin's recent trend: Bull market signals coexist with potential risks
In the past month, major cryptocurrencies have increased by about 20%. Analyst Ali Martinez believes a stronger rally may be on the horizon. However, other analysts believe the bear market is far from over and predict a sharp decline in prices in the short term.
Will history repeat itself?
Bitcoin prices have fluctuated between US$78,000 and US$80,000 in the past few days, and are currently trading in the middle of that range. According to Martinez, this leading digital asset has recently regained its "Warm Supply Realized Price." This indicator is used to track Bitcoin's average cost basis over the past one week to six months.
The analyst pointed out that four previous similar situations have been accompanied by a strong market rebound. For example, in October 2023, Bitcoin surged nearly 160% after recovering that level; in a similar situation a year later, it also rose by 74%.
X platform user Crypto Rover issued another bullish signal. He noticed the so-called "golden cross" formed on the Bitcoin price chart and warned that the last time this pattern appeared, the bear market ended and assets eventually soared by 500%.
In addition, there are positive factors to support it. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the largest cryptocurrencies attracted nearly $1 billion in inflows last week, highlighting the growing interest of institutional investors. BlackRock's product IBIT maintains an undisputed leading position in this field, with cumulative net assets exceeding US$64 billion; Fidelity's FBTC ranks second with approximately US$10.3 billion.
Crash is imminent?
Some analysts believe that Bitcoin will eventually experience a full-scale bull market, but may experience a significant decline before then. X platform user Crypto With Haris claimed that "the final sharp sell-off is closer than most traders realize" and predicted that prices will fall to $62,000 before the main uptrend arrives.
Crypto Lens holds a similar view, believing that Bitcoin is about to complete its final "bull market trap" and predicting that the price may plummet to $50,000.
On the other hand, Crypto Patel said that if Bitcoin encounters resistance at US$83,000, it means that the overall structure remains bearish and may be followed by a collapse to US$50,000. However, he added that if the daily close price can stand above this level and successfully conduct a second test, it will open the door to a breakthrough to the psychological level of $100,000.

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