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BTC Bitcoin reproduces the classic "golden cross" signal, but the market timing is complex
Bitcoin has recently shown one of its most famous bullish technical signals, but the current market timing seems complex. On Thursday, BTC traded around $77,800, down nearly 2% from the previous trading day's close after failing to maintain another challenge to the $80,000 mark.
Despite this, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average has crossed the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025, forming the classic "golden cross." The signal came after Bitcoin rebounded about 34% from its July low, but the next major test target could be closer than $90,000.
The three major indicators focus on the US$83,000 range to US$86,000.
Glassnode's analysis points out that multiple independent market indicators such as the cost base of long-term holders, ETF break-even points, and derivative clearing positions all converge in a narrow resistance range of US$83,000 to US$86,000. This makes $86,000 not just a random price target, but a key resistance level backed by multiple data.
Current selling pressure has weakened significantly compared to the situation when Bitcoin tried to rush higher in August. Glassnode said seller pressure at the high level in the range had dropped to less than half of its August level, and long-term holders had mostly avoided adding new selling pressure.
However, caution is still necessary. Historical analysis shows that of Bitcoin's past 12 gold crossings, only 3 have lasted a full year. Therefore, although the gold crossing can confirm improvement in momentum, it does not guarantee that the bull market will continue.
Bitcoin ETF capital flows suddenly weaken
The flow of institutional funds is creating another polarization. In the week ending September 4, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted US$986.9 million in capital inflows, which was the third consecutive week of positive inflows. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT accounted for about 70% of these inflows.
But according to SoSoValue, there was a net outflow of approximately US$120 million on September 9, of which ARKB from ARK21 Shares contributed nearly US$78 million. Currently, total ETF assets are approximately US$99.3 billion. The reversal comes after three weeks of continuous inflows into Bitcoin, making the psychological barrier around $80,000 even more critical.
Fed risks may determine Bitcoin's next move
Macroeconomic conditions may determine whether the "golden cross" can turn into a real breakthrough. On Thursday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to near 4.87%, and Brent crude oil prices remained above $100, fueling inflation concerns. Markets expect the probability of the Fed raising interest rates at its September 15-16 meeting to be about 60%.
This makes upcoming inflation data particularly important. Bitcoin has shown sensitivity to changes in the Federal Reserve's expectations. For bulls, recovering $80,000 will reopen the path to $83,000 to $86,000; if they can effectively break through $86,000, the $90,000 target will be more credible.
Until then, Bitcoin's gold cross is an encouraging sign, but the market still needs to prove its ability to break the well-known ceiling.
