Bitcoin selling pressure drops to a rare low, with $80,000 sellers leaving

The short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin has eased significantly, and online data shows that a "low selling pressure risk" environment has formed.

As the profit-taking market in August gradually faded out of view in September, the short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin has been greatly reduced. On-chain data points to a market environment with "low selling pressure risk". Glassnode's latest weekly online report shows that Bitcoin's Sell-Side Risk Ratio has dropped to 7-a significant improvement from 16 in September. The change is significant for traders who view realizing profits as a trigger for a faster, more emotional sell-off.

The same Glassnode update also highlighted that long-term holders are making profits more selectively, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors are still in deep losses overall, with a break-even point at around $86,000.

Core Points

• Glassnode reported that Bitcoin's selling pressure risk ratio reset to a low level, falling to 7-one of the lowest readings in history.
• The lower selling pressure is consistent with Bitcoin retaining most of its August gains of about 25%.
• The share of realized profits for long-term holders fell to 47% from a peak of 88% in August.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors have been below the break-even point (approximately US$86,000) for 229 trading days, with a book loss of approximately US$3.9 billion.

Why selling pressure risk ratios matter

Glassnode defines its selling pressure risk ratio (SSRR) as a measure of pressure to "realize" rather than just focusing on price fluctuations. This indicator divides the total profits and losses realized on the chain by the realized market value of Bitcoin. In other words, it aims to capture the ratio of the value of the dollar actually traded relative to the size of the realized currency base over a given period of time.

report pointed out that low SSRR values are generally consistent with the following conditions: "macro market bottoms, accumulation stages, and an environment with relatively low selling pressure risk." This interpretation is particularly relevant for markets that have rebounded recently, as large realized profits could increase the likelihood that holders will lock in gains when price momentum stagnates.

September cooling after August rebound

Glassnode attributed the decline in SSRR to a shift in realization behavior after the rebound. The company pointed out that when Bitcoin surged to a multi-month high above $80,000 in late August, the SSRR hit 16. As of this week, the ratio had more than halved to 7, which Glassnode said was one of the lowest readings on record.

The on-chain analysis platform believes that the August price rebound "attracted very little supply," referring to the absence of a meaningful supply surge in on-chain activity. Glassnode also compared other periods and pointed out the uniqueness of this situation: It pointed out that similar "supply absorption" conditions were not observed in the same way at later points this year, and that only a very few days in the past year had readings below today's levels.

This is important because a low SSRR environment reduces the probability that even a moderate correction will immediately trigger an aggressive sell-off. It does not eliminate downside risks-prices can still fluctuate due to macro factors or liquidity-but it can change the balance between the number of potential sellers and the size of achievable profits.

Shift in profit-taking: Long-term holders sell less

In addition to overall selling pressure, Glassnode also focuses on who makes profits on the chain. The report defines long-term holders as wallet entities that have not spent UTXO for at least six months. According to Glassnode data, these holders have lower profit-taking rates this month.

Specifically, Glassnode said that the share of realized profits for long-term holders has dropped to 47% from a peak of 88% in August. The report also pointed out that the surge in realized profits on September 3, 2026 was less than half of that in August. Taken together, the "who's selling" dynamic seems to be moving away from the most patient holders.

"The main sellers this month are recent buyers, and they are also selling less."

This distinction is significant for investors: new entrants are generally more sensitive to recent price changes, while long-term holders have a very different response pattern. If selling impulses are increasingly concentrated on newer holders-and they are easing operations-this helps explain why SSRR is still trending downward after a strong month.

ETF break-even point remains a key reference

Although selling pressure risk has improved, the report emphasized that ETF positions remain a significant suppressing factor. Glassnode pointed out that if U.S. spot bitcoin ETF investors want to restore overall profits, bitcoin prices need to return to about $86,000. According to the report, Bitcoin has closed below that level in the past 229 trading days, and ETF investors 'book losses are currently approximately $3.9 billion.

This does not necessarily mean that ETF holders are selling aggressively-when investors remain exposed through continued inflows or hold on amid volatility, book losses can persist through the decline. But from a behavioral perspective, the break-even point often becomes a psychological and institutional reference point. If the price returns to $86,000, ETF investors may face pressure to reassess risk; conversely, if the price falls further, the temptation to reduce exposure could be intensified.

Thus, a decline in SSRR may help allay fears that automatic corrections will inevitably lead to a chain reaction of selling. At the same time, ETF break-even dynamics also remind us that a large number of people are still losing money, and if price moves close to or away from this threshold, emotions may change quickly.

Readers should pay close attention to whether SSRR remains low as Bitcoin prices continue to trade near the $80,000 region, and whether ETF performance pushes investors closer to or away from the overall break-even point of approximately $86,000. The key question is whether this "low selling pressure risk" environment in September will continue as realized profit levels evolve.