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BTC Bitcoin's election strategy has worked three times: When to buy?
Well-known analyst CryptoGoos has proposed an extremely concise Bitcoin (BTC) trading strategy that successfully tracks and identifies the most important asset cycle bottoms and tops. If this pattern fulfills again, the next major buy signal may be happening-and that is, while you read this passage.
This is an interesting point: investors should not rely on complex indicators, moving averages, or on-chain data, but should focus on the U.S. midterm elections. Historical data shows a remarkable pattern: Bitcoin has been weak in every previous midterm election year, but rebounded strongly after the polls closed. This makes this year and the months to come full of variables and highlights.
Midterms are not a "good year"
Given that Bitcoin was essentially a little-known "cyber magic currency" in 2010, we do not count that year's midterms. We will focus on analyzing the three midterm elections in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Looking back at history, we can find that the market has been poor in the past three years.
As early as 12 years ago, following the crazy bull market in 2013 and Mt. Bitcoin has already experienced a sharp decline after the collapse of the Gox exchange. Fast forward to the bear market of 2018, when cryptocurrency prices plunged from nearly $20,000 to below $3,500. Things will not be much better in 2022: Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, the Terra/LUNA collapse, and the broader crypto credit crisis, assets have entered another brutal downward cycle. Just days after the mid-term elections ended on November 8, the FTX exchange collapsed, causing Bitcoin to fall to about $16,000 in the final downward phase of the cycle.
CryptoQuant's research found that Bitcoin fell by more than 60% in each of these three midterm election years. Therefore, the similarities between the current situation and 2026 cannot be ignored. Despite the recent rebound, bitcoin prices are still well below the all-time high set in October 2025.
Buy signal?
The more interesting part of CryptoGoos 'conclusion is the trend after the vote. Historically, Bitcoin has typically rebounded strongly in the 12 months after midterm elections in the United States. Based on tracking data for the first three cycles, the subsequent average increase exceeded 50%.
Of course, this does not mean that the election itself mechanically caused a sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin. A more reasonable explanation is that mid-term election years are often accompanied by a variety of conditions that put pressure on risky assets, such as political uncertainty, declining investor appetite, changes in fiscal policy expectations, and, in the four-year cycle unique to Bitcoin, a historically weak stage.
Once the election is over, a major source of uncertainty disappears, and markets can more confidently price fiscal, regulatory and monetary policy over the next two years.
If investors choose to follow CryptoGoos 'strategy and accumulate Bitcoin before the midterm elections, the first phase of the sell-off should start with a 25% reduction next year, followed by a significant 50% reduction in 2028, and a further 25% reduction in 2029 after the election.
