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BTC Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points, Bitcoin prices fluctuate near key US$76,700
Bitcoin prices have been hovering near the key US$76,700 as the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point increase in its target federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. The interest rate hike occurred on September 16, the first time the Federal Reserve has adjusted interest rates since July 2023.
Market reaction after the Federal Reserve's decision
After the central bank's decision, Bitcoin was trading at approximately US$76,400. In the first half hour after the news was announced, its price fluctuated between $75,000 and $76,900. As of September 17, Bitcoin finally stabilized and consolidated around US$76,450 due to difficulty breaking through key on-chain indicators.
Glassnode released a report on September 15 stating that Bitcoin's price closed below its "True Market Mean" of US$76,700 for the first time. Analysts at Glassnode believe that only when Bitcoin closes below that level for several consecutive days can it be confirmed that it has exceeded the established trading range.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to implement the 25-basis point rate hike to deal with persistent inflation, which has been further exacerbated by rising oil prices. This move has been widely expected in financial markets.
The Fed's interest rate decision also affected the broader market: The Dow Jones Industrial Average stabilized after falling 1.2% and gold fell 0.67% to $4,263.91 an ounce.
Glassnode Analysis: Market Level and ETF Fund Outflows
近日，比特币面临显著的抛压。据Glassnode数据，本周跌幅约为4.6%。此次下跌导致比特币跌破了短期交易区间以及关键的76,700美元均价水平。
76,700美元此前曾在8月23日和9月10日充当支撑位，但本周的跌破紧随多个负面催化剂之后，其中包括参议院CLARITY法案投票失败。Glassnode重申，若要确认跌破趋势成立，需要再次出现日均价下方的日线收盘。
Glassnode指出：“比特币在进入美联储决策时刻前，已经因ETF资金流出、清算增加以及国债收益率上升而显得疲软。”
比特币的“实现市值”（Realized Cap）在9月15日至16日之前已连续增长27天，随后出现下降。与此同时，尽管本月初曾录得近10亿美元的流入，但美国现货比特币ETF在9月8日至9月14日期间仍记录了总计3.34亿美元的资金净流出。
稳定币的总供应量保持在约3,010亿美元左右，略低于2026年4月的峰值水平约4%。企业金库活动也有所放缓，三个月内仅购入5,900枚比特币，相比之下，2025年7月的购买量为89,000枚。目前企业的平均成本基础为80,500美元，高于比特币的现货价格。
关键支撑与阻力区域
据Glassnode称，在CLARITY法案投票失败后，期权交易者将其头寸转向下行保护。9月25日到期的期权的最大痛苦价位（Max Pain Price）位于72,000美元，而阻力则集中在85,000美元至90,000美元之间的看涨期权墙（Call Wall）。
订单簿数据显示，买单流动性正在减弱，最强的买盘挂在68,000美元，且向下延伸至61,000美元的区域存在流动性缺口。
Glassnode强调，短期持有者成本基础（Short-Term Holder Cost Basis）所在的71,300美元是当前的即时支撑位。如果比特币出现第二个在76,700美元下方的日线收盘，那么62,000美元至65,000美元区间的更深层次支撑可能会发挥作用。
Glassnode指出：“如果比特币能连续两个交易日收盘在76,700美元上方，并伴随‘实现市值’的重新增长，之前的交易区间有望恢复。”
华尔街拥抱Web3解决方案
在市场高度监控和技术点位观察的同时，传统金融机构正越来越多地探索Web3技术。华尔街公司正从基于经纪商的系统转向区块链平台，使投资者能够直接在其加密钱包中持有主要美国公司的股份、黄金和白银。通过诸如1stepSwap等平台对现实世界资产进行代币化并提供即时价格发现，中间商在这些交易中已被完全移除。
比特币价格走势展望
美联储最新的加息举措加剧了风险资产的挑战性环境。然而重要的是，比特币的下行走势始于9月16日决议之前。目前，76,700美元的“真实市场均值”已成为判断价格方向的关键技术指标。
若能持续回升至76,700美元以上，比特币有望恢复至之前的交易区间；若继续在该水平下方出现日线收盘，则可能激活下一个目标位71,300美元，以及62,000美元至65,000美元区的更深层次支撑。
