比特币国库在3个月内仅增持5,900枚BTC，账面亏损持续

企业比特币国库动能减弱，链上数据显示多数持仓仍处浮亏状态

根据最新的链上分析，企业比特币国库的积累势头似乎正在减弱。数据表明，许多当前持有者仍处于亏损交易状态，且新增买盘力度不足以抵消这一抛压。Glassnode的数据指出，上市公司在2025年中期的购买高峰期间仅收购了其BTC采购量的一小部分，而该群体的混合成本基准仍高于当前的现货价格水平。

结果是，国库在支撑价格方面的能力减弱：如果买家停止积累且其头寸仍处于“水下”（即浮亏），那么现有的持仓更像是上方的供应阻力，而非活跃的需求驱动因素——至少在目前看来如此。

核心要点

• Glassnode报告称，上市企业在2026年的约三个月内增加了约5,900枚BTC，远低于2025年7月看到的采购规模。
• 对于现有的企业持有者而言，企业国库的平均成本基准约为80,500美元，这使得该群体相对于现货价格约有6%的浮亏。
• Glassnode表示，2026年曾出现过两次试图收复该成本基准的努力，但均因价格无法维持在目标水平之上而失败。
• ETF资金流向再次转为负值，美国现货比特币ETF在截至9月11日的五个交易日中录得4.627亿美元的净流出。
• Glassnode defines the current situation as a "wait-and-see market" and notes that demand signals in the Realized Cap are weakening.

As the treasury is in a state of floating losses, the scale of corporate purchases has shrunk.

Glassnode quoted its "FlowsNetCompanies" treasury flow chart to show that listed companies have accumulated approximately 5,900 BTC in 2026. Compared with the acquisition intensity in July 2025, this figure is significantly smaller. At that time, although the transaction price of BTC/USD was above US$100,000, companies still purchased approximately 89,000 BTC units.

This comparison is crucial because it highlights a shift in corporate behavior: rather than continuing to increase holdings at a rate that could materially change the balance of supply and demand, many buyers appear to be waiting for clearer price confirmation. Glassnote pointed out that the current treasury has not yet returned to normal profitability.

In its latest newsletter,"Onchain Week," Glassnode said that the "corporate treasury cost benchmark" for existing positions is about US$80,500-slightly above the spot price-which means that the group as a whole is in a floating deficit. Glassnode also emphasized that there were only two attempts to recover the cost benchmark in 2026, and both attempts failed because prices failed to remain above target levels. Analysts believe that buyers who have suspended purchases and are still at book losses have not played a positive supporting role.

"Recovering $80,500 would return the treasury to profitability and remove supply resistance above; until then, its entry point constituted another ceiling."

Strategy slows down but still dominates

尽管企业需求被描绘为普遍低迷，但并非所有公司都完全停止了购买。商业情报公司Strategy——被广泛认为拥有最大的企业比特币国库之一——在8月底进行了最近一次购买，增加了4,603枚BTC。此前的报道指出，这是该公司两个月来的首次收购。

即使有这笔增量购买，Strategy的整体仓位仍反映出相同的宏观现实：报告中引用的Glassnode数据显示，Strategy持有的845,050枚BTC的成本基准为75,412美元。虽然这一数字低于上述整体国库群体的平均成本基准，但更广泛的观点仍然是：企业积累目前并未在整个行业中充当稳定的、锚定价格的流。

为何Glassnode称之为“观望中的市场”

企业购买的放缓伴随着宏观和投资者风险条件的变化。Glassnode将当前状态描述为与加密市场的更广泛谨慎态度一致，其中关于BTC未来走势的不确定性往往会抑制增量购买。

这种谨慎情绪也反映在美国政策发展中：据报道，美联储于周三实施了自2023年7月以来的首次加息。加息周期通常会收紧金融条件，并对流动性敏感资产造成压力，这有助于解释为何对比特币产品的需求会对短期价格变动做出更强烈的反应。

One way to measure this sensitivity is through the flow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Earlier reports pointed out that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of US$462.7 million in the five trading days ended September 11. The report also pointed out that this reversed a three-consecutive week trend of net inflows and strengthened the view that risk appetite has cooled in the near term.

Glassnode connects these ETFs and the broader market model to what it calls a "wait-and-see market." It further added that as of September 15, Bitcoin's realized market value-defined in crypto analysis as the cumulative price when supply last moved along the chain-had begun to decline. The decline in realized market value is interpreted as weakening demand at current prices, indicating that fewer participants are willing to establish new cost anchors higher on the curve.

In the analysis, the realized market value was approximately US$1.069 trillion. Glassnode's explanation is conditional: a positive return to daily realized market value changes will signal that buyers are back and supporting prices. Conversely, if there is an outflow when BTC trading is below the average, it means that "buyers in the range" are starting to give up.

This is important for investors and traders because the "ceiling" of the treasury description and the "wait and see" stance through the realization of the market value description both point to the same dynamic: at current levels, demand is not being actively expressed. When corporate accumulation and ETF-based capital flows soften simultaneously, the market may become more dependent on narrow buy blocks rather than widespread continuous bidding.

Glassnode总结道：“每日实现市值变化回归正值将表明买家回来了；而在价格低于均值时出现的连续流出将意味着区间内的买家已经开始放弃。”

接下来在企业及链上需求方面需要关注什么

现在的关键问题是，企业国库和更广泛的市场参与者是否会恢复足够的积累力度，以改变上方供应与新鲜需求之间的平衡。Glassnode的框架暗示，收复接近80,500美元的企业国库成本基准可以减少那层上方阻力——但也指出，2026年之前的尝试未能维持住。

在接下来的几个交易周里，读者应关注两个确认信号：持续的ETF流入（而非短暂的逆转）以及实现市值稳定或再次转向上的迹象。这些信号共同将更好地表明，“观望中的市场”是否正在缓解——或者企业购买的当前暂停是否会继续影响市场情绪。