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BTC New Bitcoin valuation framework: It may reach US$170,000 in 2030 and is expected to hit US$230,000 in 2035
Although Bitcoin's trading price today hovers around US$76,000, a long-term valuation framework predicts that its price will more than double by 2030 and roughly triple five years later (i.e., 2035).
Based on analysis by chief alternative strategist John LaForge, Ned Davis Research predicts that Bitcoin will rise to approximately $170,000 by 2030, and that potential targets could reach $230,000 by 2035. This forecast was made against the backdrop of Bitcoin's price remaining in the range of US$76,300 to US$76,500 after a period of volatility.
This contrast is very significant. Despite the recent setback of the CLARITY Act and a new round of capital outflows from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin is still trying to seek stability. However, Raffucci's long-term view focuses less on short-term price movements and more on how to value Bitcoin itself.
Seven Bitcoin valuation methods point to a core issue
Raffucci outlines seven ways investors can think about the value of Bitcoin, including network adoption rates, comparison to gold, money supply growth, production costs, portfolio risk, adoption cycles, and the much-watched Stock-to-Flow model. Among them, the network adoption rate stands out because it relies most directly on bitcoin-specific data. These data include the number of holders, exposure gained through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the number of addresses holding balances, and the number of daily active addresses.
This approach puts needs at the center of the valuation problem. The framework does not assume that Bitcoin will become more valuable simply because supply is scarce, but rather asks whether more investors are actually joining and using the network. This difference also makes Raffucci skeptical of the "stock flow" model. The popular model heavily focuses on Bitcoin's limited supply and declining issuance, but Raffucci believes that the growth in demand is not enough to support many of its higher historical forecasts.
$75,500 mining costs bring near-end variables
One of the more impactful valuation indicators is Bitcoin's production costs. A new mining report from CoinShares shows that listed miners faced a pre-tax cash weighted average cost of approximately US$75,500 per bitcoin in the second quarter. This figure is abnormally close to the current market price of Bitcoin.
Production costs are not absolute floor prices, but if Bitcoin is traded below miners 'costs for extended periods of time, it could cause financial pressure and force operators to sell reserves or reduce mining activity. This situation is particularly relevant given that Bitcoin has recently tested the key $75,000 area. This means that the current level of trading in the market is not only important at a technical level, but also has far-reaching implications in mining economics.
23万美元的比特币需要需求跟上步伐
目前的即时背景远不如2035年的预测那样乐观。9月15日，美国现货比特币ETF记录了约4.5亿美元的资金净流出，这是自6月以来最大规模的单日撤资；随后在9月16日又有约2.96亿美元流出该产品。这一逆转发生在8月强劲表现之后，当时比特币ETF吸引了35.2亿美元的资金净流入。
这种张力可能是230,000美元预测中最重要的部分。比特币的固定供应已经是已知事实。因此，要达到170,000美元或230,000美元的目标，将很大程度上取决于方程的另一面——即采用率和需求的变化。
在约76,300美元的价格水平上，比特币需要上涨约123%才能达到170,000美元，上涨约201%才能达到230,000美元。这些目标是预测而非保证的结果，但Ned Davis Research的框架提供了比单一价格预测更有用的东西：一套可衡量的因素，投资者可以据此判断比特币是否真正朝着这些目标迈进。
