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BTC 比特币或已确立长期价格底部：Fisher Transform指标发出罕见看涨信号
据知名链上分析师Willy Woo分析，比特币（BTC）可能已经建立了一个重要的长期价格底部，这一判断得到了广泛认可的技术指标——Fisher Transform（费雪变换）的支持。
历史牛市趋势信号重现
上个月，由2002年开发的价格趋势分析工具Fisher Transform为比特币发出了罕见的月度看涨交叉信号。Willy Woo指出，这是加密货币历史上第四次出现此类交叉现象。
回顾历史，该指标的过往看涨交叉点均与主要比特币熊市市场的结束相吻合。例如在2022年底的下跌行情中，Fisher Transform曾触及-3.83的低点。这种历史相关性使得分析师们密切关注其最新动向。
Woo在社交媒体线程中表示，如果历史模式成立，最近一次发生在7月、数值为-2.26的交叉信号，可能标志着BTC/USD新一轮宏观上涨趋势的开始。他强调，在过去三次主要的月度看涨交叉之后，比特币都成功确认了熊市底部。
BTC底部确认情况：3次均为真实底部，无假突破。本次交叉为历史记录中的第4次。
Although this model presents an optimistic outlook, Woo also warns that prices may consolidate or even fall further before a decisive upward trend takes shape. He noted that similar behavior had occurred in previous bull markets, where a bearish cross was subsequently replaced by new bullish signals. According to Woo, the trading behavior of speculative market participants during rising periods increases market volatility and false signals, and the lack of these participants at the bottom of the bear market actually enhances the reliability of Fisher Transform's signals during these periods.
Noun explanation: Fisher Transform indicator
A technical analysis tool that converts asset prices into a normally distributed data set, helping traders objectively identify trend reversal points and turning points.
Weekly charts show bullish divergences
In addition to monthly signals, Bitcoin's weekly charts also show signs of potential bullish divergences. At the end of December last year, the Fisher Transform reached a band low of-2.85in the weekly time frame. At the time, Bitcoin prices were hovering around $90,000. Since then, the indicator has recorded higher lows, while the assets themselves have hit lower lows, similar to the bullish divergences seen at the end of the bear market in 2022.
Woo explains that such bullish divergences over higher time frames can provide early warning of broader positive price changes. He also pointed out that these signals have historically often accompanied the end of a long-term downward trend in BTC.
Analysts remain cautious despite the strong signals
Although these technical indicators strengthen the argument for a bottom in the Bitcoin market, analysts remain skeptical about whether the recent July 1 21-month low of close to $57,000 is the final bottom for the cycle.
Woo recently observed that interest from buyers in these low positions seemed to be relatively cold, with only a few large investors accumulating BTC at the time. This lack of broad participation may affect the reliability of technology reversal signals, especially in the short term.
Buying pressure rises again when prices fall to levels that investors consider valuable, but at this time speculators are absent. As a result, price reversals are cleaner and avoid the common shocks and false breakthroughs at the top. This makes the bottom easier to define. This phenomenon can be seen in many signals and is also reflected here in the Fisher Transform.
While a series of on-chain indicators have signaled bear market reversals in recent months, the market appears to be waiting for confirmation before taking broader action. How traders respond to these signals will determine the short-term direction of Bitcoin.
