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BTC 比特币 Whale 加速吸筹：聪明钱在 rally 中持续加码
本周早些时候，比特币价格一度短暂触及 87,000 美元关口，这是自今年 1 月以来的首次，随后出现回调并在 84,000 美元附近企稳。然而，“聪明钱”阶层并未撤退，反而继续加大仓位布局。
巨额积累与历史规律
据 Santiment 数据显示，比特币巨鲸钱包正在加速积累。持有 100 至 1,000 枚 BTC 的地址自 7 月 15 日以来已增持 113,950 枚代币，其总持仓量增加了 2.22%，达到约 524 万枚。Santiment 追踪该钱包群体已有五年之久，发现其活动往往与更广泛的加密货币市场走势高度一致。回顾过往，大量积累通常出现在比特币价格强劲上涨之前或期间。
随着加密资产在 8 月中旬大幅攀升，这一趋势得以延续。数据不仅表明大持有者在反弹期间持续买入，也显示近期的涨势并非仅由散户投资者推动。
关键阻力位与技术面信号
此次复苏及随之而来的乐观情绪回升，发生在比特币重新站上 365 日移动平均线（约为 80,500 美元）这一重要关口之后。上一次出现类似突破是在 2023 年 3 月，随后价格进一步大幅走高。最新的突破可能预示着长期趋势正在转正。
In addition, Bitcoin also broke through the dense supply area between US$76,000 and US$81,000. The next key area to focus on is $88,000 to $90,000. A large amount of BTC is concentrated here, which will become the next major test for this round of rebound.
Cycle Outlook: Moderate bull market rather than extreme volatility
Despite this, the current cycle may not repeat the extreme volatility Bitcoin has known in the past. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju expects the current cycle to bring a 3-to 5-fold increase, rather than another huge 10-fold surge. He recently said that as the market expands and institutional interest increases, future bear markets will be more moderate and extreme price fluctuations will be reduced.
The driving force behind the rebound: risk aversion or speculation?
Not everyone believes that the latest market movements mark a broad return in risk appetite. Bernardo Brites, co-founder of Trace Finance, pointed out in an interview that the speed of the rebound is driven in part by short squeeze. The bigger question he raised was: Where did the new money come from?
It is worth noting that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted nearly US$1 billion in capital inflows on Monday, and also recorded smaller net inflows in the following two trading days. This suggests that most new capital enters through traditional financial markets rather than directly through cryptocurrency channels.
Brites 表示：“我不认为这是风险偏好的广泛回归。比特币在加息、油价突破 100 美元以及收益率高企的背景下上涨，这表明部分投资者将其视为对抗通胀、财政风险和地缘政治风险的对冲工具，而非对宽松货币政策的押注。”
对于 Brites 而言，接下来的关键在于 ETF 资金流入能否持续。如果需求保持强劲稳定，且稳定币供应量开始再次增长，他将预期反弹的基础更加牢固。“如果 ETF 成为唯一的引擎，那么这一走势将非常脆弱。随着头寸正常化，比特币可能会回吐相当一部分涨幅。”
