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BTC Short-term bitcoin holders are profitable and the market faces selling pressure risk
According to CryptoQuant, the unrealized profit margin of short-term bitcoin holders is approximately 33%, the highest level since December 2024. In addition, on September 22, holders realized profit cashing of 25,700 BTC, which was the highest profit-taking volume in a single day in 2026.
This warning sign came after Bitcoin hit an eight-month high (about $87,400) and then fell back. Although CryptoQuant believes that Bitcoin is still in a bull cycle, with its "bull market score index" reaching 90 points (out of 100), which is in the "extremely bullish" range, rising profitability means that the potential selling pool is expanding.
Bitcoin's rise triggers self-selling pressure
The problem is not that Bitcoin holders are only profitable. In a strong bull market, as long as new demand is strong enough, it can usually absorb the selling pressure from profit-taking. However, when supply increases and demand begins to weaken, risks follow.
CryptoQuant pointed out that demand for spot bitcoin has contracted recently, while the growth of futures activity has also slowed down. This makes the current short-term holder profit margin of 33% particularly important: traders have a significant incentive to lock in earnings at a time when marginal buying seems to be cooling.
Bitcoin has been unable to maintain its gains in the US$85,000 to US$87,000 region, coupled with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields posing another resistance. The 10-year Treasury bond yield recently exceeded 5%, putting Bitcoin caught between improving crypto market sentiment and a more severe macro background.
ETF buyers are still absorbing supply
However, there is an important hedging factor to offset the risk of selling. Last week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted a net inflow of approximately US$2.39 billion, of which nearly US$1 billion in a single trading day. This ETF buying continued even as BTC fell back from recent highs.
The trend of capital inflows continued this week, but daily demand slowed significantly to about US$31 million. This shows that institutional accumulation is still positive, but not as strong as last week's surge. Therefore, if short-term holders accelerate profit-taking, the flow of funds from ETFs will become a key supporting force.
