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BTC Bitcoin ETF continues the "October bull market"
As of now, the performance of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF seems to confirm the popular "Uptober" in the crypto circle (referring to October as a strong month for Bitcoin). According to Decrypt's Bitcoin ETF tracking data, net inflows of $102.7 million on Thursday, followed by further inflows of $31.7 million on Friday. This represented a net inflow of $134.4 million in early October.
This green start followed the previous red close. On September 30, the relevant funds withdrew US$148.7 million, ending the net inflow momentum of nine consecutive trading days since September 17. Still, September was the second-best performing month since October 2025, with a net inflow of $2.65 billion that month, according to SoSoValue.
"Uptober" is a jargon in the crypto world, meaning that October is usually strong in Bitcoin's historical trend. Algoz's Stephen Wundke told Decrypt that over the past decade, Bitcoin's average increase in October was 18%. "Traders currently believe that the upside is greater than the downside risks." he said.
Employment data released on Friday injected new impetus into the market. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data was released, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a rate hike in October plummeted to 14% from 70% at the beginning of the week. The weakness in the labor market has eased pressure on the Fed to continue raising interest rates, which often benefits risky assets such as Bitcoin.
Bitcoin briefly hit $87,173 on Friday, close to a September high of $87,354, before falling back. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin traded at about $85,000 on Sunday morning, a 0.5% increase in 24 hours.
As of now, the cumulative net inflow since the launch of these funds has reached US$58.1 billion, and the total assets have reached US$101.1 billion (Data source: Decrypt Tracker).
Not everyone is optimistic about breaking through new highs. On Myriad, a forecasting platform owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders bet the probability of Bitcoin hitting a record high in 2026 at 93%, which means it will not hit a new high.
Net ETF inflows year-to-date are still below US$1 billion, after significant outflows have occurred before. The next critical juncture is coming: the September consumer price index (CPI) report will be released on October 14, and the Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 28.
