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FollowingSpaceX shares rose sharply for two consecutive days, and Morgan Stanley reiterated their view of "undervaluation"
SpaceX (stock code: SPCX) rose 7.35% on Friday to close at US$158.96; on Monday, it continued to climb 7.63% to US$171.09, with a cumulative increase of about 15.4% over the two days. According to Barron's Weekly, the stock traded close to $175 in early trading Tuesday, down about 22% from its all-time high of $225.64 set in June.
Morgan Stanley analysts reiterate overweight rating and $300 price target
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated his "overweight" rating on SpaceX and set a $300 price target. He described SpaceX as "cheap and getting cheaper" if its expected growth is factored into valuation.
Did investors use the wrong valuation multiple?
Judging from traditional valuation indicators, SpaceX does not seem cheap. At a transaction price of about $159, the company's enterprise value is about 30 times its estimated 2028 EBIT, compared with about 16 times for a group of large artificial intelligence companies. But Jonas believes that once expected growth factors are included, the results of the comparison will change.
SpaceX's 2028 EV/EBIT-to-growth ratio is approximately 0.3 times, which is approximately 40% lower than the peer median of 0.5 times. Even if Morgan Stanley's $300 price target is reached, the ratio will only rise to about 0.6 times.
This valuation argument continues previous investment logic about AI. Morgan Stanley has argued that investors are undervaluing SpaceX's expanding computing business. Jonas estimates that at current prices, the market largely reflects SpaceX's launch and connectivity business, while implied valuations for its AI business are relatively conservative. [TAG
Starship Flight 15 is the next big catalyst
Morgan Stanley believes investors have only a few weeks to lay out before Starship Flight 15, which Jonas sees as a potential big catalyst. The company recently completed its 14th flight, successfully entered low-Earth orbit and deployed the Star Link satellite, which helped rebuild market confidence after early development setbacks. The summer's launch delay put pressure on SPCX, and this progress marks an improvement in the situation.
SpaceX's fundamentals are also strengthening. Second-quarter revenue increased 92% year-on-year to $7.81 billion; adjusted EBITDA increased significantly 191% to $3.54 billion. Strong earnings growth helped stock prices recover from summer lows near $105.
