Raoul Pal says capital is shifting from AI to cryptocurrency

Macro liquidity dominates the crypto market: Raoul Pal analyzes capital rotation and new opportunities under the AI wave

Real Vision founder Raoul Pal pointed out that the next wave of upward momentum in the cryptocurrency market may no longer rely mainly on the independent catalyst of specific tokens, but more on the macro liquidity environment-especially the trend of the US dollar and the yield of US Treasury bonds. In a recent issue of Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets, Pal said that the strength of the US dollar and high yields are hindering the free flow of liquidity to risky assets, including digital currencies.

Pal also highlighted an increasingly important cross-asset dynamic: capital competes between cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. He believes that the "pause" in AI trading rather than a full-scale collapse will actually help funds return to the crypto market. At the same time, he predicts that as AI agents develop, some of the resulting economic activity will favor smart contract platforms such as Ethereum and Solana rather than Bitcoin.

Summary of core views

• Crypto market momentum is linked to macro liquidity: A weakening US dollar may provide a "green light" for the market to move further.
• High bond yields and the strength of the US dollar pose headwinds: Pal pointed out that this limits the flow of liquidity into the crypto market.
• AI stocks compete for funds: Pal believes that if the AI market fluctuates rather than plunges, cryptocurrencies are expected to benefit from it.
• AI 智能体或推动智能合约链活跃度提升：Pal 预计，随着时间的推移，以太坊和 Solana 将捕获更多的需求份额。
• 对简单的“Solana 取代以太坊”叙事保持谨慎：Pal 表示，以太坊的资金集中度创造了另一种类型的优势。

为何 Pal 期待美元走弱

Pal 的核心宏观论点简明扼要：当美元呈上升趋势且收益率保持高位时，流动性往往更紧密地绑定在传统市场。在他看来，加密货币需要更有利的条件才能延续其反弹势头。

关于何种变化能带来转机，Pal 表示，如果政策制定者和市场共同促成美元走弱，加密货币将获得更明确的支持。他强调目前尚未看到完全的“绿灯”，但方向性暗示表明，美元/收益率背景的宽松将提高进一步上涨的概率。

他还强调，流动性是决定市场能否在无压力状态下增长的关键变量。在他的评估中，那些“抽干”流动性的条件对于任何试图维持反弹的资产类别都是危险的，加密货币也不例外。

AI 与加密市场的拔河：无泡沫破裂下的资金轮动

Pal connects its liquidity theory to a cross-market model involving AI stocks. He pointed out that an interesting time window emerged between August 19 and August 25: Bitcoin reportedly rose about 25% to about $80,000 during this period, while Nvidia fell for seven consecutive trading days. Pal concluded that when AI trading activity is suspended or cooled, capital can be diverted to the crypto market.

At the same time, Pal warns against ignoring the opposite scenario. A disruptive AI crash could send a signal that systemic liquidity has been withdrawn-which would threaten the conditions on which cryptocurrencies rely for their rise. He said the overall market will perform better when liquidity is abundant rather than evaporating.

Pal describes his preferred outcome scenarios: a weaker dollar, a steeper yield curve, and banks increasing loans and money supply by expanding credit. However, he pointed out that borrowing costs are rising and cited data showing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.29% in September. He also mentioned that the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point.

Under these headwinds, Pal's "second-best scenario" is more conservative: AI stocks trade sideways. He believes that even so, funds may still flow into the crypto market without triggering a sudden liquidity shock.

AI agents and stablecoins payments may tilt activities towards Ethereum and Solana

除了宏观条件外，Pal 认为，下一波经济活动可能来自 AI 智能体——即与服务和交易进行互动的软件。他认为，随着智能体开始为内容访问付费并执行需要结算的任务，智能合约平台可能会受益。

他提到了亚马逊云科技（Amazon Web Services）的一项举措，该举措增加了 AI 流量货币化的能力，使内容所有者能够向 AI 机器人收取访问费用。他还指出了 Coinbase 在其 x402 协议中通过代理支付验证和结算所扮演的角色，并指出 Base 网络上的 USDC 是支持的支付选项之一。

Pale 建议，智能体最终可以通过基于代币的机制来资助更长期的运营——发行代币以资助持续时间从短期爆发到数月甚至长达一年的项目。在这种模式下，智能合约为工作发生时的交易和回报生成提供了基础设施。

从这个角度来看，他表示，随着 AI 系统利用其网络的功能来执行和结算交易，以太坊和 Solana 将在“长期内”获得更大的采用率。

Solana 的活跃度 vs. 以太坊的资金集中度

Pale 也对加密市场中 ongoing 的一场辩论发表了看法：Solana 是否会在当前周期内超越以太坊的市场市值。虽然他表达了对这两个网络的看好，但他警告不要将“取代”叙事视为不可避免。

He cited remarks by Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin Capital, in a previous article in Trade Secrets, where Samani predicted that SOL's market value would exceed Ether during this cycle. Pal responded that Samani "needs to calm down", although Pal admitted that this could still happen.

To explain that this comparison is not a single dimension, Pal points out that these networks lead on different indicators. Using DefiLlama's data, he mentioned that in the past 24 hours (Monday), Solana had recorded approximately 3.2 million active addresses, compared with 387,000 for Ethereum. However, he contrasts this with the depth of decentralized finance (DeFi): Ethereum's total value lock in DeFi protocol is approximately $54.4 billion, much higher than Solana's approximately $6.7 billion.

Pale describes a framework he calls "economic density," which divides the total value locked by the number of active users. His argument is that Ethereum attracts more capital relative to the number of users, while Solana's activities involve smaller transaction sizes-he sums up this asymmetry in one sentence, namely that Solana's core activities are "small specs" of "speculation."

Price Forecast and Market Outlook

When it comes to price forecasts, Pal said he has stopped sharing public price targets because the data is often taken out of context, spread and quoted repeatedly, distorting market expectations. He described the idea of Bitcoin reaching the "million-dollar" level by 2030 as a "meme" rooted in growing adoption, interest in ETFs, and Bitcoin's use as collateral. Still, he said he didn't mind Bitcoin reaching such a milestone by 2032.

The next thing readers should pay attention to is whether the macro signals flagged by Pal-especially the dollar and yield trajectories-are really moving in favor of cryptocurrencies, and whether the AI market is moving sideways or a crash that causes liquidity to dry up. If this model holds, Pal's framework suggests that cryptocurrencies will benefit from it-and the monetization and payments of AI agents may increasingly direct growth towards the smart contract ecosystem.