Bitcoin call options surge, traders target $95,000

Traders concentrated US$4.5 billion in Bitcoin call options in the range of US$90,000 to US$100,000, with an expiration date of October 30.

Traders concentrated a total of US$4.5 billion in Bitcoin call options in the exercise price range of US$90,000 to US$100,000, and the contract expiration date is set to October 30. This accumulation of positions reflects a renewed focus on the rise in BTC prices, but it does not constitute a consensus expectation in the market.

Summary of Core Points

• Traders concentrated approximately US$4.5 billion in positions on Bitcoin call options that expired on October 30.
• The main exercise prices are concentrated at US$90,000, US$95,000 and US$100,000, with the highest concentration at US$95,000.
• The above amount represents the nominal value of the contract, rather than the total amount of funds actually invested.
• Despite traders 'optimism, the $78,000 level is still a warning sign.
• If the price of Bitcoin does not rise sufficiently, a large number of options may become worthless when they expire on October 30.

Traders target three key levels for Bitcoin

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $83,000 after a partial pullback earlier this month. In the options market, Call Options accounted for 60.24% of open interest, while Put Options accounted for only 39.76%. Among them, contracts expiring on October 30 account for the majority of these positions.

As the main platform in the field, Deribit records that call options with a strike price of $95,000 are equivalent to 25,030 bitcoins, with a nominal value of nearly $2.07 billion. Three exercise prices currently dominate the expiration:

• approximately US$1.26 billion of call options with a strike price of US$90,000;
• approximately US$2.07 billion of call options with a strike price of US$95,000; and
• approximately US$1.20 billion of call options with a strike price of US$100,000.

A total of approximately 54,750 bitcoins are involved, with a nominal value of US$4.53 billion. Therefore, US$95,000 constitutes the main concentration point. To reach this level, Bitcoin would need to rise by about 14% above its current price to achieve it before the contract is settled.

This pattern may seem favorable to a bullish scenario, but it does not mean that US$4.5 billion is actually invested in betting on a rise in BTC prices.

The nominal value does not match the actual promised amount

The value of $4.5 billion corresponds to the nominal amount of the contract, which is calculated by multiplying the amount of bitcoins represented by the option by the asset price. Investors pay only premium to buy these contracts, which is usually well below their nominal value.

In addition, Open Interest does not explain each participant's specific strategy. Trading call options always involves buyers and sellers. Some traders may expect the price of Bitcoin to rise, while others sell the same contract because they believe the price will remain below the strike price.

Investors also often combine multiple options to form complex strategies. For example, an operator might buy a call option for $90,000 and sell a call option for $95,000 to limit costs and potential benefits. Others use these products to hedge existing positions.

Therefore, the dominance of call options is an indicator of sentiment rather than proof that the entire market expects Bitcoin to reach $95,000. Actual trading volume over the past 24 hours shows a more balanced picture: calls accounted for 54.02%, puts accounted for 45.98%.

US$78,000 is still a risk point at expiration

On Deribit, the "Maximum Pain" price due on October 30 is approximately US$78,000. This level corresponds to the level at which the option holder theoretically receives the lowest total amount at settlement. On platforms such as Binance and OKX, this is between $81,000 and $82,000. As a result, it is lower than the current bitcoin price and significantly away from positions concentrated between $90,000 and $100,000.

However, the "maximum pain point" is not a predictive value. It fluctuates as positions are opened and closed. In a market dominated by call options, their levels could also mechanically remain below the Bitcoin price.

Finally, futures provide a more cautious signal. Its open interest reached about $51.7 billion, but fell 1.59 percent in 24 hours. This means that some of the leveraged positions have been closed, while options continue to attract traders. The market must now see if Bitcoin can consistently break through $90,000. Without this development, a large number of call options placed at $95,000 and $100,000 could become worthless when they expire on October 30.