Bitcoin price analysis: As U.S. demand turns negative, has the rebound in BTC ended?

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart Perspective

Bitcoin's short-term structure has weakened after experiencing resistance rejection from US$86,000 to US$90,000, and is currently trading at approximately US$83,000. At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index turned sharply negative, indicating that U.S. -based buying demand may be fading. Although Bitcoin is trying to stabilize, buyers need to recover nearby resistance levels to improve prospects.

Bitcoin's daily chart shows that it has rebounded sharply from a June low of about $58,000 to a recent high of about $86,000. However, the rally has encountered strong resistance, and the latest price movements suggest that bears are regaining control in the short term.

Bitcoin was rejected in the US$86,000 to US$90,000 resistance zone, and the lower edge of this zone (approximately US$86,000) constituted a direct barrier to its upward movement again. A broader area of resistance appears around $95,000, a position that will become critical if Bitcoin can regain its closer supply area and regain its recovery momentum.

Still, after a bullish cross, prices are currently above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, both of which are currently close to $72,000. While Bitcoin is comfortably above these moving averages, recent crossings and gains reflect an improvement in the medium-term structure after the summer recovery. These moving averages could become important dynamic support if the correction deepens, but they are not immediate downside targets with the market still above the closer support zone.

The first key downside area to focus on is the $77,000 demand area formed by the bullish order block that launched the last wave of recent gains. Losing this area and prices close below $75,000 will weaken the structure of the recovery and expose the aforementioned moving average of approximately $72,000.

However, for now, the daily structure is still in a recovery stage, but judging from the rejection of resistance levels and the loss of potential short-term support, Bitcoin may need to undergo a deeper correction before attempting further upward.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart analysis

On the 4-hour chart, assets fell below the rising wedge pattern after being rejected from the $86,000 region. A break below the lower trend line of the pattern indicates that the pattern ends in a bearish manner, at least in the short term.

After falling below, Bitcoin fell to near the US$80,000 region, and then rebounded to US$83,000. The recovery suggests buyers are trying to stabilize prices, but the rebound is limited due to a bearish order block forming around $85,000, which could push asset prices down again.

On the downside, the $80,000 low represents an area where buyers have recently tried to intervene. If Bitcoin loses this area, the next major support level is the $75,000 to $78,000 demand area visible on the daily chart.

The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory and is currently in a range of just over 40, indicating that selling momentum has eased. However, it is still below the neutral level of 50, meaning that the rebound has not yet established convincing bullish momentum.

Therefore, the short-term outlook remains cautious. If buyers can hold on to recent lows, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate in the $82,000 to $84,000 range. However, if it is rejected again below $86,000 and falls below $80,000, the possibility of a deep correction towards the $75,000 to $78,000 demand area will increase.

Sentiment Analysis

The Coinbase Premium Index chart shows that the indicator turned sharply negative in its most recent reading, falling to about-0.1, while Bitcoin is trading at close to $82,700. The index measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and comparable market prices, with negative values usually indicating that BTC is traded on Coinbase at a discount relative to the reference market.

Continued positive premiums may indicate stronger buying pressure on Coinbase, which is usually related to U.S. spot demand. Conversely, a negative premium indicates weak relative demand or strong selling pressure on the platform. However, this indicator is not a direct measure of total capital flows to U.S. investors and may also be affected by differences in liquidity and market conditions between exchanges.

The recent deterioration is noteworthy because it coincides with Bitcoin's rejection from the US$86,000 resistance zone and its subsequent wedge break from a four-hour rise. The fit between the weakening price structure and the negative Coinbase premium suggests that current spot demand may not be enough to support an immediate continuation of the rally.

The index fluctuated repeatedly between positive and negative regions throughout the chart period, so the latest decline should not be interpreted as conclusive evidence of continued shipments. Still, continued negative premiums will strengthen bearish arguments if accompanied by further price weakness, especially if Bitcoin loses $80,000 support area.