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The US CPI inflation rate rose to 3.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rate

2026-10-15 00:36:10

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9月CPI升至3.7%，核心通胀超出预期

10月14日，美国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据公布，引发市场剧烈反应。尽管通胀仅比预测值高出0.1个百分点，但这一“失误”促使市场对美联储利率路径的预期迅速重估。在Polymarket平台上，10月加息概率在周三交易中飙升约25个百分点至43%，而维持利率不变的概率则为57%。

数据显示，美国9月CPI同比上涨3.7%，高于预期的3.6%以及8月的3.4%。核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.6%，均高于预期的0.2%和2.5%。这些数据表明，在10月27日至28日美联储议息会议之前，通胀压力并未完全消退。

通胀细节：能源驱动与广泛价格压力并存

9月总体物价环比上涨0.6%，加速了8月0.4%的涨幅。其中，汽油成本大幅跳涨9.1%，贡献了总涨幅的一半以上。广义能源指数攀升5.2%，对家庭预算构成直接压力。然而，价格上涨并未局限于能源领域。

住房、二手车、机票、医疗和服装等类别的价格也在上升。住房价格环比上涨0.4%，这表明通胀并非仅由燃料驱动。这种非能源领域的价格压力对于解读核心通胀数据至关重要，因为能源驱动的通胀与更广泛的通胀对美联储实现2%通胀目标的影响截然不同。

市场预期急剧转向

The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on September 16, bringing it to 3.75%-4.00%. The minutes of the meeting indicate that most policymakers believe it is appropriate to raise rates again before the end of the year. However, the final decision still depends on upcoming economic data.

In addition to Polymarket, the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange also reflects changes in market expectations: the likelihood of a rate hike in October has increased from 22.1% before the release of inflation data to 43.7%, an increase of 21.6 percentage points. As a result, the yield on two-year U.S. bonds rose, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. stock prices fell.

Next up, we will pay attention to the Producer Price Index for September, which will be released on October 15, as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures data for September, which will be released on October 29. It’s worth noting that the PCE data will be released one day after the policy meeting. Although rising borrowing costs could affect the liquidity of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, the inflation report did not include any data related to crypto asset prices. Currently, keeping the interest rates unchanged remains the most likely outcome for October.

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