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BTC U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August exceeded expectations, and the market repriced the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations.
A report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday showed that the number of new jobs in the United States reached 162,000 in August, much higher than the 53,000 previously forecast by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, in line with market expectations, and employment data for both June and July were revised upward.
Traders viewed this strong data as a signal for the Fed to raise interest rates further. Affected by this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 226 points (down 0.4%), the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose slightly 0.1%. According to CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the September 15 - 16 meeting to be 58%, which is higher than the previous day's forecast of 49.4%. As expectations for upward interest rates increase, the U.S. bond yield curve has risen across the board, with two-year bond yields hitting their highest level since January 2025.
Policy responses and asset price fluctuations
President Donald Trump posted on the Real Social platform: "The just-released jobs data performed well and broke all forecasts." He reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and threatened to stop trading with U.S. trade surplus countries if the Fed did not act.
At the same time, gold prices fell back under pressure, falling to an intraday low of $4,380 per ounce, and this week may record a second consecutive week of decline. The crypto market has also suffered the same impact. Previously, Bitcoin climbed to a four-month high of $82,240 as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed his preference for keeping interest rates unchanged on Thursday; but with the release of non-agricultural data, the gains quickly retreated. Within minutes of the data release, Bitcoin fell more than 2%, trading around $79,300.
The increased attractiveness of risk-free assets means that higher interest rates raise the threshold of return that stocks and cryptocurrencies need to achieve to justify their allocation value relative to U.S. Treasuries. In addition, rising interest rates tend to push the dollar stronger, putting pressure on dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin and gold. This constitutes a logical chain of strong employment data leading to a weakening of Bitcoin prices.
Market sentiment and technical analysis
This mirrors the situation when July employment data fell short of expectations: weak data at the time reduced the probability of a rate hike and provided room for crypto-assets to rise. The significantly exceeded expectations this time directly weakened Waller's previous argument that interest rates should remain unchanged.
Bitcoin opened at around US$77,500 in early September. For crypto traders, September is often referred to as the "Red September" because of the closing price falling in 8 of the past 13 September months. Although Thursday's short squeeze cleared more than $415 million in short positions, Friday's price reversal still followed this historical pattern.
Overall, although the sentiment in the crypto market has cooled down, it still remains bullish. The CoinMarketCap Fear and Greed Index read 75, still in the "greedy" range; the total market value of crypto remained around US$2.67 trillion, up slightly 0.11% on the day. It is worth noting that current bullish sentiment has receded slightly compared to last week's "extreme greed" reading.
The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of US$730.8 million, continuing the buying momentum triggered by expectations of a suspension in interest rates on Thursday. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Seasonal Index is 38, indicating that funds still prefer Bitcoin over other mainstream tokens.
The Federal Reserve will make an interest rate decision from September 15 to 16, the first time it is considering raising interest rates since the tightening cycle ended in July 2023. The next report covering September employment will be released on October 2.
