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BTC According to data shared by Santiment, analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that the number of bitcoins in the hands of "whales"(large holders) has remained at about 5.23 million over the past week. The market faces a critical period of about 10 days ahead, during which several important events will occur one after another.
Why did the whale wait and see? [TAG
There has been neither significant overweight nor massive sell-off in the recent "whales," suggesting that major market participants have not made a clear decision on the direction of current prices. Martinez pointed out that these investors are particularly waiting for the release of U.S. inflation data and the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting.
This wait-and-see sentiment does not stem solely from Bitcoin's technical trend. In the next few days, the market will pay attention to several major macro issues at the same time.
The first critical test: U.S. inflation data
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) for August will be released today. However, the real focus of the market will be on Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
The strong performance of previously released employment data has renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates. Currently, the market expects the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting to be about 60%. A Reuters survey showed that most economists still expect interest rates to remain unchanged.
Because of this divergence, CPI data may play an important role in reshaping expectations for the Fed's policy options.
On May 15, Bitcoin faced another test
Coming at the same time as macroeconomic data, there was also a direct impact on the progress of the cryptocurrency market. The U.S. Senate plans to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15.
This vote does not mean that the bill will be formally passed, but rather determines whether the Senate will advance the bill's review process. Given that this step requires 60 votes in support, it is seen as an important threshold in the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory process.
Then turn its attention to the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan
Markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's decision immediately after the vote on the CLARITY Act. In addition to the decisions of the Federal Reserve meeting from September 15 to 16, its economic forecasts and officials 'statements will also have an important impact on Bitcoin.
Immediately afterwards, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will become the focus on September 18. A Reuters survey showed that the market generally expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to 1.25%. Any austerity measures from Japan could spill over to risky assets through global bond and foreign exchange markets.
Why is Bitcoin consolidation so important?
As the above event approaches, Bitcoin has been fluctuating in the range of US$77,500 to US$80,000 over the past week. Although attempts above $80,000 did not last long, the $77,500 area below was effectively supported.
The "whale"'s position around approximately 5.23 million BTC remains unchanged, which also confirms the current horizontal volatility trend. If expectations on inflation, interest rates and cryptocurrency regulation change simultaneously in the next 10 days, the consolidation pattern that has lasted for several weeks may be broken. Therefore, not only is Bitcoin's price trend worthy of close attention, but the follow-up movements of large investors are equally critical.
This content is based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. It is recommended that you conduct independent research.
