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FollowingTrump promises "$5000 dividend": Republican Party's midterm rhetoric and fiscal problems
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a bold proposal at the Republican Party's midterm election special convention in Dallas: If the Republican Party controls both houses of Senate and Senate in the November midterm elections, he will pay a $5000 "Trump dividend" to each adult U.S. citizen. Although he did not disclose many details, he stressed that citizens receiving the money must consume it within the United States.
Trump said: "If Republicans win majorities in the Senate and House, I will pay this money to every adult citizen." He described it as a "dividend" based on the strength of the United States 'economy and aimed at allowing people to share the fruits of national prosperity.
US$1.35 trillion in funding
According to Reuters, the plan is expected to cost about US$1.35 trillion. This number immediately raises two core questions: Where does the money come from? Can Trump truly fulfill his promise?
The President cannot directly order the Treasury Department to distribute funds. Federal spending must be approved by Congress, which means that such payments would not be automatically triggered even if the Republican Party achieved a sweeping victory in November. Vice President J.D. Vance has hinted that tariff revenue could help fund the program, noting that wealthy Americans may be excluded. However, these assumptions remain inconsistent in fiscal logic.
Looking back at 2025, Trump proposed a smaller $2000 "tariff dividend" plan. At the time, the Committee on a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the broad version of the plan would cost about $600 billion, while annual tariff revenue at steady state was expected to be only $300 billion. If the amount is increased to US$5000, the funding gap will widen sharply.
The "dead end" dilemma caused by tariffs
In addition, there is a complex economic paradox: tariffs, which are theoretically used to fund cheque payments, themselves push up prices.
Federal Reserve research found that tariffs implemented in 2025 led to a statistically significant increase in the prices of consumer goods affected by tariffs. Another recent study also pointed out that low-income households bear a disproportionate burden of tariff-related price increases.
This creates a peculiar economic trade-off: Washington is effectively using revenue from import taxes that drives up the prices of some consumer goods to fund a huge cash payment plan designed to help Americans cope with cost-of-living pressures.
At the same time, the total U.S. federal debt has exceeded the US$40 trillion mark, and this year's deficit is expected to exceed US$2 trillion. This has raised concerns about how to fund this trillion-dollar plan without additional borrowing.
Currently, it seems that the $5000 payment is still a campaign promise rather than a government project with a clear source of funding. Even if Republicans sweep Congress, winning elections may be easier than raising money.
