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XRP The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision attracts attention, and the CLARITY bill is blocked, causing XRP and Bitcoin to fall.
The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision has attracted widespread attention in the cryptocurrency field, and traders are preparing for key signals of U.S. monetary policy. Cryptocurrency analyst EGRAG CRYSTPTO pointed out that the actual factor driving the market will be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, rather than the expected 25-basis point rate hike itself.
Senate vetoes CLARITY bill, XRP and Bitcoin prices fall
The U.S. Senate narrowly vetoed the CLARITY bill with a 49 - 50 vote, eliminating a potential catalyst for digital asset regulatory reform. Legislative failure caused XRP prices to fall sharply, down nearly 10%. Bitcoin also fell, falling below the $76,000 mark after the vote was announced.
The CLARITY Act aims to provide a clearer regulatory definition of cryptocurrencies, which market participants believe will help promote industry growth and enhance investor confidence. However, legislative setbacks have dealt a heavy blow to market sentiment, with its negative impact overshadowed other events in the eyes of many traders.
The defeat of the CLARITY Act caused XRP to fall by almost 10%, while Bitcoin slipped below $76,000 in subsequent transactions.
Kevin Walsh's policy style compares to Powell
Kevin Walsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve, adopted a very different style of communication. Powell tends to provide consistent forward-looking guidance, while Walsh chooses to keep the market guessing about future movements. At the recent Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Walsh said he was committed to "discipline, not decision-making" and refused to signal future interest rate changes in advance.
In the same speech, Walsh emphasized that "underlying inflation trends have not improved substantially" and said the Fed's work has not yet been completed. This stance has changed market expectations. Previously, the market generally predicted that a rate hike before December is extremely unlikely, but now there is a strong consensus that a rate hike will be made by 25 basis points at the September meeting.
EGRAG CRYSTPTO pointed out that the market is currently widely expected to increase interest rates to the 3.75%-4.00% range. He expects Wash to raise interest rates to establish his credibility in controlling inflation.
When Washh elaborated on his strategy in Jackson Hole, he called it "a discipline, not a decision," making clear that he would not signal ahead of time about future rate hikes.
Interest rate hikes are expected to be set, focus shifts to press conference
据EGRAG CRYPTO分析，市场已将25个基点的加息幅度计入当前价格，因此注意力转向沃什随后的新闻发布会。投资银行摩根大通预测，根据沃什讲话的语气，标普500指数可能在+1%至-2%之间波动。鹰派信号预计将对包括股票和加密货币在内的风险资产造成压力，而紧缩周期结束的迹象则可能提振市场情绪。
黑天鹅情景及XRP前景展望
EGRAG CRYPTO还提出，重大的“黑天鹅”经济事件可能迫使美联储扭转方向，实施激进的降息措施。历史上，低利率和流动性宽松曾为包括XRP在内的数字资产提供了强劲的顺风助力。
对于XRP持有者，分析师建议保持现金储备，不仅关注加息本身，更要关注如果经济状况恶化，政策快速转变的可能性。随着《CLARITY法案》未能通过，货币政策的宏观背景如今占据了中心舞台。
