比特币（BTC）价格：为何8万美元大关难以突破

TLDR

Fed interest rate path adds pressure, Senate vote brings crypto bill to a standstill. Coinshares said it is unlikely that Bitcoin will exceed $8,000 in the near future.

• The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on September 16, the first increase since July 2023.
• The Federal Reserve's latest forecast shows that the interest rate path in 2026 and 2027 is higher than expected in June.
• On September 15, the Senate voted 49 - 50 to veto the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
• Given regulatory setbacks, Bitcoin is considered more resilient than altcoins.

Market background and analyst views

As investors pay close attention to developments in the Federal Reserve and Congress, Bitcoin is trading below $80,000. Analysts pointed out that the two major institutions are creating new obstacles to price movements this year.

James Butterfill, director of research at Coinshares, said that a strong breakthrough of US$80,000 for Bitcoin is currently unlikely.

Fed policy shifts to pressure

The Fed raised interest rates on September 16, the first rate hike since July 2023. The Federal Reserve adjusted its target interest rate range to 3.75% to 4%. Officials note that inflation remains high and the economy is growing at a solid pace.

Pressure from the Federal Reserve's interest rate path

According to Butterfill, the Federal Reserve also released a new interest rate forecast, which even outweighs the interest rate hike itself. September forecasts show median interest rates of 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027, compared with 3.8% and 3.6% respectively in June.

Butterfill pointed out that this poses a serious challenge to Bitcoin's trend before the end of the year. He said breaking the $80,000 mark would require either better inflation data to support it or a shift in the Fed's expectations.

A higher interest rate path tends to support a stronger dollar and push up short-term bond yields. This combination may slow down improvements in market liquidity, on which Bitcoin's rise typically relies.

Butterfill also mentioned the impact of the situation in Iran. He said rising energy costs caused by the conflict had exacerbated inflationary pressures. He believes that this makes it less likely that a policy shift will change in the short term, and it is increasingly likely that another interest rate hike will be raised later this year.

Senate vote stalled crypto bill

Congress added a second source of uncertainty on September 15. The Senate has voted on the Digital Asset Market Clarification Act (H.R. 3633) voted. The Senate voted 49 - 50 to reject a procedural motion, bringing the bill's progress to a standstill.

Unresolved ethical issues involving elected officials and their cryptocurrency businesses are the main points of disagreement. Seven Democratic senators who voted against said they plan to continue negotiations.

But Butterfill doesn't think the bill will disappear. He said the revised version could be reintroduced early next year, in part because of the U.S. government's increased holdings of stablecoins. He pointed out that because Bitcoin's regulatory status has become clearer, it is more resilient than other currencies; Ethereum and other similar networks face greater risks of regulatory exposure because they carry a large amount of stablecoin payment infrastructure.

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has said that even if the Clarity Act stagnates in the Senate, regulators and banks can continue to build Bitcoin infrastructure within the existing legal framework, and this view remains true.

Butterfill said rising Treasury yields could eventually force the Fed to adopt a stronger policy response. He called this a "tail risk" rather than a basic scenario, but admitted that it could be good for both gold and Bitcoin.

Overall, the short-term outlook remains flat. Hawkish Fed policies and the delayed passage of the Clarity Act are not conducive to rapid breakthroughs, and pressure on altcoins is greater than on bitcoin.