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BTC Bitcoin shows amazing resilience, key resistance becomes a watershed for bull market confirmation
In the past few days, despite the macro environment seemingly unfavorable for Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies have shown impressive resilience. From the setback of the U.S. Senate's CLARITY Act to the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, Bitcoin, as a risk-loving asset, should have been hit hard. In fact, it did experience a brief correction, falling to a three-week low of $75,000 on Tuesday and Wednesday.
However, the initial shock was quickly absorbed by the market, and bulls launched a fierce counterattack on Friday, pushing asset prices above US$81,000, setting a two-week high. More notably, the price level was held firmly on Saturday, in sharp contrast to several previous breakthrough attempts that failed to stabilize. This phenomenon has prompted some analysts to predict that a bull market may start-but only if certain conditions are met.
The real test: Breakthrough in the $82,000 area
Crypto Rover and CryptoGoos jointly pointed out that $81,000 is the current immediate breakthrough barrier. They believe that if they can successfully break through this position, the $100,000 goal will come back into view, and may even look towards $120,000 later. Although Bitcoin has tested the first phase of this optimistic scenario, there is also a much-watched technical barrier above the current price.
CryptoGoos特别提到了比特币的50周移动平均线，目前该均线位于约81,700美元附近。分析师表示，收复这条均线将是比特币重回牛市的确认信号。回顾几周前，比特币曾数次测试该均线，但均未能取得永久性成果。
这一水平之所以引人关注，是因为其他数据也表明，82,000美元低位区域是一个重要的阻力带。比特币365日移动平均线近期一直在此徘徊，这强化了当前区域的重要性可能超越心理关口80,000美元的观点。因此，仅突破80,000美元或81,000美元可能尚不足以证明趋势反转，比特币必须克服82,000美元区域，才能证明其具备将此次行情转化为真正突破而非又一次失败尝试的实力。
另一道重大关口：90,000美元的宏观信号
另一位分析师EGRAG CRYPTO提出了更高的阈值，认为只有达到这一标准，才能宣告比特币的宏观看涨结构回归。他指出了比特币日线图上的100周期指数移动平均线（EMA），目前该指标位于90,000美元附近。历史上，跌破该指标往往伴随着看跌压力；而收复、重新测试并随后反弹，则提供了更强的看涨确认信号。
因此，该分析师认为，在多头正式宣布进入牛市阶段之前，需要出现价格在90,000美元以上的日线收盘，并随后进行成功的二次测试。
