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Following
XRP XRP rebounded 7% over the weekend and returned above $1.41.
XRP rose sharply by about 7% over the weekend, pushing the token price back above the $1.41 mark. Spot trading volume surged to approximately $1.36 billion in 24 hours, and total transactions tracked in major markets climbed to nearly $4.9 billion. The rally follows a rally in the broader crypto market triggered by Bitcoin's breakthrough of $80,000.
This increase was mainly due to short squeeze rather than new buying pressure. Traders holding short positions in XRP lost approximately US$8 million during the upward reversal, while long positions suffered a smaller loss of approximately US$2.4 million, confirming that this trend mainly penalizes short sellers.
Futures activity still far exceeds spot trading
XRP futures volume reached approximately US$5.7 billion, more than four times the spot data. This large gap means that if leveraged positions are quickly liquidated, the rally will be exposed. In fact, futures activity hit a six-month high in August, after similar patterns have often been accompanied by sharp price fluctuations.
In addition, this rebound was not accompanied by any major fundamental catalyst. XRP slipped to the $1.23 to $1.30 range in early September. The previous decline was related to the Senate's failure to vote on the CLOSURE (Closing Debate) bill, which failed to pass by one vote. As a result, Saturday's rally was more like a technical correction than a turn driven by new developments.
ETF demand provides support, but whale deposits pose risks
The U.S. spot XRP ETF has currently attracted more than US$1.7 billion in inflows. This stable institutional demand provides certain underlying support for tokens. However, in the past 30 days, approximately 1.6 billion XRPs have been transferred to Binance wallets, and such deposits have reached a six-month high.
Analysts believe these deposits may reflect position adjustments rather than imminent sell-off. However, XRP reserves on Binance are close to a 69-day high, and further gains could still trigger new selling pressure. Despite this, Ripple's overall business narrative continues to strengthen, with XRP and its RLUSD stablecoins now integrated into payment platforms including Stripe and Tempo.
A new derivatives venue adds another variable. The Moscow Exchange plans to launch the XRP perpetual contract on September 22. As XRP struggles to stay above the $1 mark, this expansion could bring additional leverage into the market.
Outlook for subsequent trends
Whether XRP can maintain its current trend depends on whether trading volume this week can remain above US$1 billion. Continued ETF inflows and slowing Binance deposits will support prices towards $1.45 and $1.50. Without this support, the rally could turn into another brief rebound in XRP's recent trading range of $1.23 to $1.50.
