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BTC Kevin O'Reilly: Returning to the crypto market, Bitcoin is expected to account for 1% to 3% of institutional alternative asset allocations
Core points:
- O'Reilly said he is establishing new positions in crypto assets before the next market cycle.
- He pointed out that the adoption of blockchain technology by the first major stock exchange would be a watershed moment for the industry. [TAG 11] He expects the stalled Clarity Act to be pushed back in a quarter or two after the midterm elections.
O'Leary lays out crypto assets
The chairman of O'Leary Ventures revealed in an interview at the Avalanche Summit in New York that he has "returned to the game" and started buying new positions and betting on the next investment cycle. He said that the key to the next phase of crypto investment is to determine which blockchain will be widely adopted and which industry it will be first implemented in.
Although he can ask CEOs of various industries about the network conditions the company is evaluating,"the answers they give are inconsistent." For Bitcoin (BTC), O'Reilly believes that institutions will eventually allocate 1% to 3% of alternative assets, which is relative to their gold holdings. But he did not disclose his preferred specific chain, exchange or purchase size.
Blockchain adoption by stock exchanges
奥莱利称，首家主要证券交易所采用区块链技术将成为行业的“分水岭时刻”。他认为，金融系统中的其他参与者随后都会希望该网络能够满足交易平台设定的合规要求。
大型交易平台正朝此方向迈进，监管机构也开始为其腾出空间。例如，纽约证券交易所母公司洲际交易所（ICE）同意投资tZERO，并授权其区块链专利，以打造一个支持全天候交易和即时结算的平台。与此同时，纳斯达克与Kraken母公司Payward预计，代币化股票交易将于2027年第二季度启动。
《清晰度法案》与加密税务
奥莱利预计，无论中期选举后国会由哪个党派控制，立法者都将在第一个或第二个季度恢复对市场结构立法的推动。他指出，《Clarity Act》在本周参议院毫无希望，因为9月15日的一项程序性投票结果为49比50，远未达到所需的60票多数。
在税务政策方面，他认为这将最终迫使该议题重回议程。众议院筹款委员会于9月16日以38比5的票数通过了《数字资产税收确定性法案》，涵盖质押、挖矿、洗售交易及经纪人报告等内容。奥莱利表示：“如果你要对这种资产提供税收政策，你需要的是更多监管，而不是更少。”
他对华盛顿政治环境的谨慎态度日益加深。今年二月，他曾表示，由于对量子计算风险的担忧，部分机构不愿持有超过约3%的比特币。今年一月，他曾希望市场结构规则能在中期选举前通过国会；而到了6月10日，他在电视上警告称，在《CLARITY Act》成为法律之前，比特币将“毫无进展”。
