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SHIB Shiba Inu Price Forecast: Triangle Form Ends on October 4
On Thursday afternoon, Shiba Inu was quoted at US$0.00000573, or US$5.73 parts per million, down 1.97% from the previous day. A brief answer to the key question about the next few days is as follows: Prices are currently inside a triangular pattern. According to a technical analysis by Blockchain.News on September 30, the apex of the triangle falls on October 4. Before that, the upper edge of the downside and the lower edge of the upside are compressing price space; after that, the tension will be released in one direction. For you as an investor, this is a key date to lock in the next few days.
In chart analysis, a triangular pattern is a period where each rally ends earlier and each pullback to the buying point comes earlier. The two lines will eventually meet at some point, at which point one side will be forced to take action. This pattern does not predict the direction, it only indicates the arrival of the decision-making moment.
The second key date is in the German Federal Ministry of Finance's calendar and is not related to the chart, but closely related to your return. The draft to reform the taxation of crypto assets is expected to be submitted to the Cabinet for review on October 14, with a deadline of December 31, 2026. These two deadlines and their consequences are elaborated on below.
Triangle pattern in SHIB chart expires on October 4
If the time frame is divided into three parts and observed, the current position of Shiba Inu coins is easier to interpret. In the past year, SHIB has fallen by 53.34%, a decline of approximately 30% since January 2026. But the situation is different at a quarterly level: Since recovering from a cyclical low of $0.000041 in July, prices have risen 39.3%, with September rising more than 10%, making it the strongest performing month this year. The decline in the past week was 0.83%, and the market is in a state of consolidation.
This stagnation is a reflection of the triangular shape. The swing high of $0.000063 on September 22 marked the upper edge of the downside, while the rising lows since July constituted the lower edge. An analysis by Blockchain.News points out that the intersection time is October 4, and gives a probability of an upward breakthrough of 40% to 45%, and a probability of a downward breakthrough of 55% to 60%. This is an analyst's assessment based on daily charts rather than a deterministic result.
Important note: A triangular breakthrough is a signal measured in days, not months. Any attempt to build annual forecasts based on this is an excessive stretch of form.
Resistance is at 6.00 micro-US dollars, support is at 5.00 micro-US dollars
Levels in the same analysis can be organized in the following table. The percentage figure is based on a price of $0.0000573 on Thursday afternoon.
Why the 200-day moving average is the key hub here
The 200-day exponential moving average (200-EMA for short) is a moving average of the past 200 closing prices, with more recent prices. Its location is approximately $0.000057 and is actually around the current price. As long as the SHIB closes above this line, the recovery since July remains technically intact. If prices fall below and stay below, the triangle will lose its lower edge and the next reliable take-over zone will drop to $0.000052.
Current momentum readings do not clearly support either side. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 55.67, which is in the neutral range between the usual thresholds of 30 and 70. The Stochastic indicator is 61.65, which is higher than its signal line of 49.32, slightly biased towards the buyer. Both are indicators that may change within two trading days.
SHIB's October seasonality: Historical records show a positive earnings hit rate of 80%
In history, October has been the most stable month for Shiba Inu. According to estimates, the hit rate for positive earnings in October was 80%, while the month closed down only once in the entire recorded price history. This is a real pattern, but the sample size is small: SHIB has only existed since 2020, so the data only covers a few October months.
Seasonality is still a category of observation and will not become a mechanism through repetition. This observation describes what happened more often in the past and does not guarantee that it will happen again in the future. Anyone who converts this into position sizes should regard it as one of many arguments, not a core supporting argument.
End-of-October price targets: Finbold, DeepSeek and Gemini are widely divided
Publicly recorded month-end expectations range from significant losses to double-digit growth, which in itself is the most honest statement of the status quo.
- Finbold's AI agent gave a target price of US$0.00005835 for October 31. This is approximately 1.3% higher than the calculated base price of $0.0000576.
- DeepSeek Chat语言模型在同一调查中得出月末价格为 0.00000642 美元，比今日价格高出约 12%。
- Google 的 Gemini 模型预计同期将下跌 8.85%，至 0.00000525 美元。
- Changelly 预测服务给出的秋季中期平均价格为 0.00000562 美元。
这些数据来自模型而非承担责任的分析师，且彼此矛盾超过 20 个百分点。因此，它们为你的决策提供的是一个范围，而非确切目标。更可靠的预测部分在于图表：向上突破的首要障碍为 0.0000060 美元，向下的破位点为 0.0000050 美元。
每日销毁 6800 万枚 SHIB：占流通供应量的 0.00001%
销毁代币意味着将 SHIB 发送至无人能再次提取的地址，从而导致流通量永久减少。根据 Shibburn 的数据，9 月 30 日销毁了约 6800 万枚 SHIB，日销毁率飙升了 154.33%。
这一百分比看似惊人，但绝对数值澄清了事实。销毁金额价值约 395 美元，约占流通供应量的 0.00001%。在 589.24 万亿枚代币的流通量下，如此规模的日常销毁量不会对供应产生显著影响。将销毁率视为价格驱动因素的人，是在极小的基数上衡量巨大的百分比。
总供应量 589.50 万亿枚略高于流通供应量。因此，没有大量后期进入市场的锁定储备，也没有任何机制能以可观的速度收紧供应。
Shibarium 活动：日均 1,680 笔交易
Shibarium 是 Shiba Inu 项目的自有网络，一种所谓的 Layer 2 解决方案，旨在以更低的成本结算交易。数据显示，使用量已下降至日均约 1,680 笔交易，相比之下，2025 年 8 月的日均交易量高达 469 万笔。这是价格背后的真实基本面发现。
一项来自我们自身报道的观察与此相符：Shibarium 上的验证者质押已关闭长达 167 天。原本指望从网络中获得被动收入的人目前并未得到回报。对于预测而言，这意味着价格目前依赖于季节性、流动性和市场情绪，而非不断增长的使用量。
以记录代替估算：若无获取证明，草案将一半出售所得视为收益
2026 年 12 月 31 日的截止日：祖父条款划分两种税务世界
这里涉及你可以独立于图表采取的行动。德国联邦财政部关于改革私人持有特定加密资产税收的草案预计将于 2026 年 10 月 14 日提交内阁审议。协会和法律事务所可在 2026 年 10 月 6 日前发表意见。实质性规则将于 2027 年 1 月 1 日生效，平台自动代扣税则仅在 2028 年 1 月 1 日实施。
The key is the deadline. According to the draft, crypto assets you acquired before December 31, 2026 will still be subject to the old law, which means they have a one-year tax-free holding period. Therefore, even if you sell these positions a few years later, you will be tax-exempt as long as you hold them for twelve months. The new system will apply to all assets that enter your portfolio after January 1, 2027. As a result, each position creates two layers of structure, and you must treat them separately. See our article on "Alternative Evaluation without Purchase Records" for the process and details.
This is particularly specific for SHIB holders, as positions in the token almost always consist of many small purchases. At a price of 0.00000511 euros, approximately 19.57 million tokens can be purchased for 100 euros, and approximately 195.69 million tokens can be purchased for 1000 euros. If you continue to buy for several months, you will carry the corresponding number of individual trade records.
50% Alternative Assessment: Gaps caused by missing evidence for SHIB
One point in the draft that has so far been ignored in the debate on holding periods is the estimation rule. If you cannot prove the cost of acquisition, the Inland Revenue Department will treat 50% of the proceeds from the sale as a gain, which is called a "substitute assessment." For securities, the comparable rule of 30% applies over the long term when banks lack access to data. The provisions of the encryption draft are more stringent. An analysis by expert portal Der Betrieb on September 14, 2026 described this, and tax consulting firm GTKP also pointed out the difference on September 15.
A specific SHIB case demonstrates the impact of this gap. You sell tokens worth 5000 euros at a cost of 4500 euros. Your actual income is 500 euros. In the absence of proof, the alternative assessment assumes a gain of € 2500. At a 25% tax rate, the difference between the two scenarios is about 500 euros, which is exactly equal to your actual income.
This gap will not arise when purchasing on ordinary exchanges. If you buy on a platform, leave the token there and sell it on that platform, and the platform knows the date and price. However, the situation becomes tense when a transaction that is common to memecoin holders in their daily lives occurs-that is, depositing tokens from your own wallet or other exchange. What the receiving platform sees is only the inflow, but no history. The platform does not know when the tokens were generated and what they cost. This is where the 50% rule comes into play.
There is an additional difficulty with SHIB, which is that many positions pass through the Shibarium Bridge or decentralized exchanges. Each step involves a change in location, and the acquired data is not transferred with it. At this point,Taxa Tool or Portfolio Tracker takes over what would otherwise require manual maintenance: it still maintains the integrity of the purchase date, purchase price, and transfer chain when changed across platforms.
Anyone holding a SHIB in self-custody needs to keep their own chain of proof for each deposit.
Buying and storing SHIB: MiCA regulated purchase pathways and ERC-20 hosting
From a technical perspective, SHIB is an ERC-20 token that lives on the Ethereum blockchain and is held by any wallet that supports Ethereum. You don't need a dedicated Shiba wallet. People who hold large amounts of tokens should keep their private keys on devices that have never been connected to the network; see our Hardware Wallet Comparison for differences between models.
In terms of purchase paths, with the entry into force of EU regulation MiCA, providers need to obtain authorization for encryption services within the EU. What this means for you is that regulated platforms will provide statements that will later serve as proof of acquisition, and that the platform will still be accessible when you need to summarize information three years later. For which institutions can be traded in Germany and their fee structure, please see the overview of regulated crypto exchanges.
What's special about millionth tokens
At a price of 0.00000511 euros, you need to handle eight decimal places. Two points derive from this. First, the rounding method is different for each platform, and the number of units on the bill may deviate slightly from the number that arrives in the wallet. Secondly, the bid-ask spread has a greater percentage weight here than Bitcoin because the order book is thinner.
SHIB's market liquidity: US$84 million in daily turnover versus US$3.4 billion in market value
Shiba Inu has a market value of US$3.38 billion, ranking 37th among the largest crypto assets. Trading volume in the past 24 hours was $84.2 million, or approximately 2.5% of market value. This ratio is not unusual for tokens of this size, but it is spread across numerous venues.
对你而言，这意味着两点。大额订单会推动价格波动，且双向均有可能；解除较大头寸的人最好分批进行。此外，自 2021 年 10 月 27 日历史最高点 0.00008616 美元以来的跌幅为 93.34%。要再次达到该水平，价格需上涨约十五倍，考虑到 589.24 万亿枚的流通量，这将意味着市值达到约 500 亿美元的水平。这在任何诚实的柴犬币价格预测中都应被纳入考量。
柴犬币价格预测：你的下一步三个行动
- 关注两个关键价位。 记下向上的 0.0000060 美元和向下的 0.0000050 美元，并在你的平台上设置这两个值的警报。10 月 4 日是三角形形态失效之日；哪些平台提供价格警报，请参阅加密货币交易所对比。
- 确保证据数据。 今年内从平台下载每个 SHIB 头寸的购买日期、购买价格和单位数量，并将文件保存在平台之外。带有税务功能的投资组合跟踪器可以在你后续更换交易所时保持链条完整。
- 匹配托管与头寸规模。 检查你持有的金额是留在交易所还是属于你自己的设备，并记录每次转账的日期和来源。哪些设备适合 ERC-20 代币，请参阅硬件钱包对比。
（截至 2026 年 10 月 1 日。本文不构成投资建议。价格和费率结构会发生变化；购买前请与提供商核实条款。）
