Bitcoin (BTC) sticks to the $86,000 mark, and U.S. bond yields soar to near 24-year highs

Analysts are optimistic about the path of Bitcoin's impact on US$93,000: ETF funds continue to flow in, but resistance remains solid.

After the U.S. market opened on Monday, Bitcoin encountered resistance around US$86,570. At the same time, the yield on the 30-year Treasury note climbed to 5.67%, approaching a 24-year peak. Lacie Zhang, an analyst at Bitget Wallet, predicts that if bond yields fall and inflation is moderate, Bitcoin may target a target range of $90,000 to $93,000. With September's employment data weakening, the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped sharply from 64% to about 23%. In addition, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of nearly $2.65 billion in September.

Bitcoin remained at around $86,000 on Monday after hitting its strongest weekly close in eight months. However, as trading in the U.S. market begins, it is difficult for cryptocurrencies to break this critical threshold.

Upward bond yields and stock market reaction

Treasury bond yields continued to show an upward trend throughout the trading session. The yield on the 30-year bond rose to 5.67%, just two basis points below when it hit a 24-year high last week. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year note fell back to 5.31%.

Trading firm QCP Capital pointed out that despite disappointing U.S. employment data, the bond market remains volatile. The company cited factors such as high crude oil prices and high long-term yields as preventing a sharp rise in risky assets.

At the opening of Monday, U.S. stocks posted gains. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.7%, mainly due to market participants 'expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its October 28 policy meeting.

Deutsche Bank's analytical team said that given the current volatility of the bond market, the FOMC meeting minutes released this Wednesday may be more important than usual releases. The minutes may reveal how policymakers assess the current trajectory of monetary tightening.

Analysts 'Outlook: If conditions are met, Bitcoin may see US$93,000.

Lacie Zhang, research director at Bitget Wallet, said that if government bond yields correct and inflation data continues to reflect weakness in the labor market, Bitcoin may climb to US$90,000 to US$93,000. She emphasized that the reduction in interest rate cuts alone or looking at ETF capital flows in isolation is not enough to support sustained breakthroughs.

Zhang pointed out that buyers must push prices above US$87,400 at the daily or weekly close to build positive momentum. She determined that if downward pressure emerged,$84,000 and $82,000 would be key support areas.

Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), a well-known analyst on the X platform, compared current market conditions to the previous cycle. He suggested that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before entering a consolidation phase, and 2027 could bring a new all-time high.

这与我们在上一轮周期中看到的#Bitcoin非常相似。在形成巨大的看涨背离后向上突破。接下来是什么？我认为我们将在近期触及100,000美元，那将是我们面临的心理阻力位……

10月加息概率骤降

10月加息的可能性已降至约23%，较一周前记录的64%概率大幅下降。Zhang将此变化归因于9月份 payroll 仅增加2.9万个就业岗位，远低于经济学家预测的9万个。

8月份的就业人数也从最初报告的16.2万人向下修正为13.3万人。在此期间，失业率从4.1%微升至4.2%。

ETF资金持续流入但未能突破阻力

Zhang报告称，美国现货比特币交易所交易基金在9月份吸引了约26.5亿美元的资金，而在10月的头两个交易日又流入了1.34亿美元。虽然她将这种流入视为建设性的，但这些资金尚不足以推动比特币突破当前的阻力区域。

Coin Bureau在X平台上另外指出，根据Glassnode的数据，长期持有者在整个市场周期中一直保持盈利状态。该账号强调，这是自2015年以来任何熊市周期中前所未有的现象，并指出持有者盈利指标目前再次上升。

This is unbelievable. Bitcoin has never done anything like this in any bear market since 2015. According to Glassnode, long-term holders remain profitable throughout the cycle. In every bear market before 2015, the average long-term holder ended up losing money...

Glassnode's Weekly Market Pulse report noted that buyer dominance has declined compared to mid-September, when BTC/USD rebounded to $87,000 for the first time in eight months. Analysts believe that this reflects "easing of aggressive upward momentum" rather than a signal of trend reversal.

Zhang warned that stronger inflation readings, a new round of price pressures triggered by the oil market, or hawkish remarks by Fed officials could reignite speculation about an October rate hike. She pointed out that any of these scenarios could cause Bitcoin to step back at the $84,000 level.

The Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate range by 25 basis points on September 16 to 3.75%-4.00%, with all 12 voting members unanimously supporting it. September's economic forecast positioned the median interest rate at 4.1% at the end of the year, up from the 3.8% forecast released in June.