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FollowingGold prices fell back due to Federal Reserve policy expectations, and markets focused on September meeting minutes
As investors waited for new signals from the Federal Reserve System (Fed) on monetary policy, gold prices showed a downward trend. Spot gold once fell to around $4,138 an ounce, and the market's focus was on the upcoming minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting. The information in these records is expected to shape market expectations for interest rate policy in the coming period, and it may imply signs of further interest rate hikes, which will have a key impact on the trend of gold prices.
At the same time, the trend of the US dollar, fluctuations in US Treasury yields, rising oil prices and the ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East are also important factors affecting the short-term performance of precious metals.
Spot gold fell to US$4,138 mark
As of 07:35 Turkish time, spot gold fell 0.6% to US$4,138.23 per ounce. On Wednesday, gold came under selling pressure as investors looked to the Federal Reserve to provide clearer guidance on future interest rate policy. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release minutes of its September meeting later that day. Market participants are trying to interpret the level of support from Fed officials for a new round of interest rate hikes.
Frank Walbaum, market analyst at Naga.com, pointed out that gold may remain relatively stable in a slight downward trend. He believes that the Federal Reserve's minutes are expected to provide more clear information on the future direction of monetary policy and the strength of policymakers 'support for interest rate hikes. Walbaum also stressed that the signals released by the minutes could reshape market interest rate expectations for future Fed meetings. In addition, he pointed out that due to the development of the situation in the Middle East, potential changes in the US dollar, long-term US bond yields and oil prices may increase the impact on gold.
Federal Reserve officials signal to raise interest rates
The latest statement from Federal Reserve officials shows that fighting inflation remains the core of monetary policy. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said whether new interest rate hikes are needed depends largely on whether the factors driving up inflation are persistent. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid pointed out that in order to bring inflation down to the target level, further interest rates may need to be raised.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance's remarks that Iran needs to significantly reduce its nuclear enrichment capabilities have also once again triggered market concerns about geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Long-term expectations remain strong, with target price at US$5,013
Despite short-term pressures, gold's long-term prospects remain optimistic. At the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) annual conference in Sorrento, Italy, delegates predicted that gold prices are expected to reach US$5,013 per ounce in the next 12 months. This forecast shows huge upside potential relative to current prices. During this period, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, inflation outlook, dollar trend and geopolitical developments will become key factors determining gold's medium-and long-term performance.
Summary and Outlook
In the short term, the performance of gold prices will mainly depend on the signals interpreted from the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. If the minutes show a tendency to raise interest rates further, it may support the US dollar and US bond yields, thus putting pressure on gold; conversely, if geopolitical risks intensify, it will increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Currently, the market is closely watching the fluctuations of gold around US$4,138, and in the long run, the forecast target of US$5,013 is attracting investors 'attention.
