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ZEC Zcash 保持上涨势头，ETF 持续流出引发市场关注
周一，Zcash（ZEC）继续保持上行动能，在经历前一天的4%反弹后，交易价格站稳于1,320美元上方，录得连续第三个交易日的涨幅。尽管近期出现反弹，但Grayscale旗下专注于Zcash的交易所交易基金（ETF）仍面临持续的投资者赎回压力，这不禁让人质疑此次上涨趋势的可持续性。
价格回暖背后，ETF资金外流仍在持续
作为主要的数字资产管理公司，Grayscale运营着名为ZCSH的交易所交易基金，为投资者提供Zcash的投资敞口。根据SoSoValue的数据，上周ZCSH录得3,072万美元的净流出。虽然这一数字较前一周的9,356万美元流出有所放缓，但过去两周内的总赎回金额已达到1.2428亿美元。
近期的这波资金外流紧随该基金上个月完成的“三合一”拆股之后。尽管赎回行为的时间点与拆股重合，但目前尚无直接证据表明两者之间存在必然联系。尽管Zcash价格目前处于上行通道，但持续的赎回信号表明，市场对ZCSH的需求依然疲软。不过，抛售压力的减轻也暗示最糟糕的赎回阶段可能正在缓解，至少从目前来看是这样。
名词解释：Grayscale is a leading digital asset management company that mainly provides institutional investors with customized cryptocurrency investment products, including single asset funds and diversified crypto index funds.
Key technical points guide Zcash outlook
In recent trading days, Zcash has traded above a dense set of exponential moving averages (EMA) on four-hour charts. Among them, the 50-cycle EMA is at around US$1,279, and the 200-cycle EMA is slightly below US$1,274. Since ZEC is quoted above $1,320, the current price is above these two moving averages, indicating that the buyer has regained some control.
However, the 50-cycle EMA is gradually moving downward and is close to forming a dead fork below the 200-cycle EMA. If this crossover is finally completed, it will further strengthen the short-term cautious technical perspective. However, this has not yet occurred. Recently, bulls have broken through resistance around $1,296, which previously hit a September 9 high. If the uptrend is maintained, this area is likely to turn into support.
As the rebound progressed, the momentum indicator also strengthened. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located around 51, slightly above the neutral central axis, indicating that buyers 'stance has strengthened. At the same time, the MACD indicator is also rising, adding positive factors to the short-term outlook.
Zcash is currently trading above key short-term moving averages, and momentum indicators are turning positive. But continued ETF outflows and nearby technical resistance levels are still testing the strength of the rally.
The upper target is at US$1,422, and the downside risk points to US$1,050.
If the moving average cluster near US$1,279 and the resistance level of US$1,296 can be clearly broken, the technical outlook may shift, laying the foundation for moving towards the US$1,422 target price (the September 18 low). To firmly establish an upward trend above these levels, sustained buying interest is needed.
However, if Zcash encounters a new rejection near the current resistance level, there is a risk of falling again to the $1,050 level. This price hit its peak on September 4, and a fall to that level would mean a drop of about 18% from $1,278. Despite the strengthening of momentum indicators, uncertainties related to ETF redemptions and resistance levels continue to dampen market optimism about the resilience.
