Bitcoin remains stable at $82,700, with CPI data raising concerns about potential interest rate hike

9月通胀数据超预期，美联储再次收紧政策压力加剧

美国9月份通胀数据高于预期，核心物价指数也超出了市场预测。汽油价格推动了整体指数的月度大幅上涨，而住房租金和航空票价则维持了核心通胀的压力。鉴于美联储已在9月完成加息，目前面临着进一步收紧货币政策的压力。如果投资者转向国债等避险资产，山寨币的表现可能比比特币更加脆弱。

根据美国劳工统计局周三发布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，截至9月的12个月内，美国消费者价格上涨了3.7%，快于经济学家预期的3.6%，也高于8月份的3.4%。剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率环比上升0.3%，高于预期的0.2%，年化率达到2.6%，略高于估计值。对于加密货币市场而言，这一时机的影响颇为尴尬，因为美联储刚刚在9月加息，而这份强劲的通胀数据为决策者提供了进一步紧缩的理由。与此同时，比特币在过去一年中下跌了27.6%，以太坊更是损失了39%。

汽油推动整体指数，核心物价悄然攀升

The price of gasoline increased by 9.1% in September, after seasonal adjustments. This represents more than half of the 0.6% monthly increase in the overall index. This figure is consistent with market expectations. Energy prices rose by 20.4% year-over-year, with gasoline prices increasing by 34.2%, and fuel oil prices by 74.2%. The food index remained unchanged in September, as the decline in the prices of beef and milk offset the increase in the prices of soft drinks and agricultural products.

Federal Reserve officials may pay more attention to the core inflation data. Housing costs increased by 0.3% in August, and then by another 0.4% in September. Airfare prices increased by 1.2% month-over-month, but by 22.4% year-over-year. Used car prices rose by 0.7%. Service items, excluding energy, saw their monthly growth rate reach its highest level since April. Core goods also experienced their largest increases in at least seven months.

For Bitcoin, both the source and the magnitude of inflation are important. The surge in gasoline prices may fade within one or two months, once crude oil prices stabilize. The Federal Reserve can consider this a temporary phenomenon. However, the widespread increase in core prices makes it difficult to wait for it to subside, as it indicates pressure on demand and pricing across the entire economy, often leading to higher interest rates for longer periods. September’s data shows both situations: energy prices pushed up the overall index, while core data shows that price pressures are spreading from gas stations to other areas.

How the impact of fuel prices affects core inflation

Central banks often ignore fluctuations in energy prices, as gasoline prices tend to drop quickly once oil prices rise. But when fuel costs start to affect other prices, the calculation changes. Economists call this process “secondary effect”: companies pass on higher costs to consumers, affecting categories unrelated to fuel purchases. Early signs of this phenomenon appeared in September, with transportation services costing 0.6% more. Airlines increased ticket prices by including jet fuel costs into ticket prices.

This chain of events affects the cryptocurrency market. When the Fed raises policy interest rates, short-term government bond yields increase, and government bonds with yields near 4% increase the opportunity cost of holding low-yield assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, high interest rates make leveraged trading in the cryptocurrency derivatives market more expensive, and leverage has always been a major factor driving down prices during recent rallies.

Why the probability of interest rate hikes seems different after these data points

美联储在9月的政策会议上将基准利率区间上调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%。在周三数据发布前，CME FedWatch工具显示交易者对10月再次加息的概率定价约为22%，并认为12月加息的可能性更大。核心数据的超预期使得“高利率持续更久”的路径更难被忽视，加密市场的关键问题已从降息时机转变为前方仍有几次加息。

在这种环境下减少风险的投资者往往首先减持最具投机性的持仓。过去七天，比特币仅微跌0.71%，而以太坊下跌3.39%，XRP下跌5.62%，Solana下跌8.85%，Hyperliquid下跌9.05%。这一差距反映了山寨币更依赖投机性流动性，且在流动性枯竭时反应更为剧烈。隐私币逆势走强，门罗币上涨5.06%，Zcash上涨4.45%，这些走势主要由其自身叙事驱动，而非宏观数据。

比特币测试82,900美元附近的斐波那契支撑位

关键水平来自比特币近期在75,072美元低点与87,420美元高点之间的波动。斐波那契回撤线衡量的是价格上涨幅度中已回吐的比例。在约82,900美元处，比特币正处于此前买家介入的第一个区域，即回吐了38.2%的涨幅。

From above, if the closing price of the four-hour chart remains above $84,000 for four hours (meaning that the price stays at this level at the end of the four-hour trading period, rather than just touching it), then it is possible that this level will be tested again as a support level. This could lead to a move towards the 0.236 Fibonacci level, which is around $84,500. Since early October, this level has repeatedly failed to hold back any attempts at a rebound. There is also an area around $85,000, as well as the range between $86,000 and $86,700, where Bitcoin has encountered several setbacks. If the price drops below $82,700, accompanied by significant selling volume, then the focus will shift to the $81,000 level, which represents the midpoint of the recent rally. Losing this level would mean that attention shifts to the range between $79,800 and $80,000. Buyers would need to defend themselves against any further declines at this level.

What will determine the Fed’s meeting on October 27-28?

Policy makers want to see whether increases in core services continue or begin to slow down. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), which are favored by the Fed, will play a key role in shaping this outlook over the coming weeks. For crypto traders, the real implications are that until the meeting, bond yields and the direction of the dollar will likely have more influence on price movements than any news related to specific tokens. If there is a higher probability of interest rate hikes in October, then altcoin investors will face greater downside risks.

The CPI data for October will not be released until mid-November. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will make its decision on October 28th, with September being the latest complete inflation report available. There is one detail in the report that could provide some ammunition for the dovish side of the market: the annual growth rate of the chained CPI (taking into account consumers switching to cheaper alternatives when prices rise) was only 3.5%. Additionally, prescription drug prices decreased by 1.2% in September, indicating that price pressures remain uneven across different sectors, except for energy and tourism-related expenses.