Cryptocurrency Regulation and U.S. Policy Developments
On September 15, the U.S. Senate voted 49 in favor of advancing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, but it was 11 votes short of passing the 60 votes needed to close the debate motion. The bill stalled after negotiations on ethics provisions involving President Trump's crypto asset holdings broke down, ending its recent prospects of passage in Congress.
AfterThe SEC and CFTC stepped in to regulate
Bernstein's team of analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, pointed out in a report to clients on September 16 that as the legislative process stalled, regulatory responsibility now shifts to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The company expects the two regulators to act at a pace designed to make up for lost time in the legislative process. Chhugani's team described this expected approach as "proactive and quick."
Analysts identified several areas they expect regulators to focus on: including token classification for fundraising purposes, developer protection of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and self-custody systems, exemptions from equity tokenization, a faster approval process for real-world asset perpetual contracts, and coordination between the SEC and CFTC on single-share perpetual contracts. In addition, changes to the way federal sports event contracts are classified under swap rules are also on the expected agenda.
事实上,SEC在投票前已开始奠定基础。8月18日,SEC提出了一项涉及加密资产的投资合约框架提案。该提案包括对初创企业在四年内发行高达500万美元代币,以及代币发行人在12个月内筹集高达7500万美元的豁免权。SEC主席Paul Atkins于7月27日告诉CNBC,如果参议院不采取行动,该机构“已准备好、愿意并能够出台相关规则”。
稳定币奖励仍不受限制
该法案的失败对稳定币奖励产生了直接影响。妥协版的立法本将禁止闲置稳定币余额的收益,并将奖励与客户活动挂钩。由于法案未通过,该限制目前并不适用。包括Coinbase在内的平台现在仍可继续向闲置余额支付收益。“只要稳定币受GENIUS法案管辖,它们应该没问题,”伯恩斯坦分析师写道,此处指的是GENIUS法案中的稳定币立法。
StoneX Financial分析师团队由Mark Palmer领衔,表示该法案在本届国会已无生还可能。他们指出,在竞选季节开始之前,参议院仅剩14个工作日。参议员Cynthia Lummis表示,《CLARITY法案》下一个现实的窗口期可能要等到2030年才会开启。此前,Polymarket上关于该法案在2026年成为法律的赔率已从2月的82%降至投票前的16%。
StoneX also pointed to potential legal disputes over stablecoin rewards. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) have each proposed rules that could view stablecoin issuers as violating the GENIUS Act earnings ban. The core of the dispute is that the issuer makes payments to affiliated institutions, which then transfers the rewards to stablecoin holders. StoneX analysts said the conflict could go to court after the GENIUS Act takes effect in January 2027.
Industry Reaction and Future Outlook
Bernstein said that if the CLARITY Act is passed, it will "insulate the industry from political regime changes." With legislative prospects fading, the SEC and CFTC will use their own rulemaking powers to determine the future shape of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation.

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